Rising Home Values and Declining Ownership in Stewartstown, PA: A Decade of Housing Market Shifts
CATEGORY
Property Value
DATA
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
DATA SOURCE
Stewartstown, a small community in Pennsylvania with a history dating back to the 18th century, has experienced significant changes in its housing market over the past decade. The overall trend shows a decline in owner-occupied housing, accompanied by fluctuations in average home prices and rent costs. This analysis examines the complex dynamics of homeownership, property values, and rental markets in Stewartstown from 2013 to 2024.
The homeownership rate in Stewartstown has steadily declined from 73% in 2013 to 59% in 2022. Concurrently, average home prices have increased from $216,967 in 2013 to $332,076 in 2022, representing a 53% increase over nine years. This inverse relationship suggests that rising home prices may have made homeownership less attainable for some residents.
Federal interest rates have played a significant role in shaping homeownership trends. From 2013 to 2016, when interest rates were historically low (ranging from 0.11% to 0.40%), homeownership rates remained relatively stable at around 72-73%. However, as interest rates began to rise from 2017 onwards, reaching 1.68% in 2022, homeownership rates declined more rapidly, dropping from 74% in 2017 to 59% in 2022. This trend aligns with the general principle that higher interest rates can make mortgages less affordable, potentially discouraging homeownership.
As homeownership declined, the percentage of renters in Stewartstown increased from 27% in 2013 to 41% in 2022. Interestingly, despite this increase in demand for rentals, average rent prices have shown an overall decreasing trend. In 2013, the average rent was $1,188, which decreased to $913 by 2022, a 23% reduction. This counterintuitive trend might be explained by factors such as changes in housing stock, local economic conditions, or shifts in the types of rental properties available.
Looking at the most recent data, average home prices in Stewartstown continued to rise, reaching $350,352 in 2023 and $361,472 in 2024. This represents a 5.5% increase from 2022 to 2023, and a further 3.2% increase from 2023 to 2024. Concurrently, federal interest rates have risen significantly, reaching 5.02% in 2023 and 5.33% in 2024, which may further impact homeownership trends in the coming years.
Applying predictive models to forecast 5-year trends, we can expect average home prices in Stewartstown to continue their upward trajectory, potentially reaching around $420,000 by 2029. This projection is based on the historical growth rate and assumes relatively stable economic conditions. For rent prices, the forecast suggests a potential stabilization or slight increase, possibly reaching an average of $1,000 per month by 2029, as the rental market adjusts to the changing housing landscape and potential increase in demand.
In summary, Stewartstown has experienced a significant shift from homeownership to renting over the past decade, driven by rising home prices and fluctuating interest rates. The inverse relationship between homeownership rates and average home prices, coupled with the unexpected decline in average rent despite increased demand, highlights the complex dynamics of the local housing market. As the community continues to evolve, these trends will likely shape the future of housing in Stewartstown.
