Robbery trends have shown a general decline over the decade. The highest number of robberies was 16 in 2016 (0.46 per 1,000 people), decreasing to 10 in 2020 (0.30 per 1,000 people). The city's contribution to state robbery figures has remained relatively stable, ranging from 0.03% to 0.1% over the years. This downward trend in robberies, despite population decline, suggests improving safety in this aspect of violent crime.

Aggravated assault incidents have shown the most significant fluctuations among violent crimes in the city. The number of cases ranged from a low of 6 in 2018 (0.17 per 1,000 people) to a high of 27 in 2020 (0.81 per 1,000 people). The city's contribution to state aggravated assault figures varied from 0.02% to 0.16% over the decade. The sharp increase in 2020 is particularly notable and warrants further investigation into potential causes.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between changes in racial demographics and violent crime trends. As the white population percentage decreased from 40% in 2013 to 34% in 2022, and the Black population increased from 6% to 9% over the same period, there was a general upward trend in violent crimes, particularly evident in the spike of aggravated assaults in 2020. However, it's important to note that correlation does not imply causation, and other socioeconomic factors likely play a role in these trends.

Applying predictive models based on the available data, it's projected that by 2029 (five years from now), violent crimes may continue to show an upward trend if current patterns persist. Aggravated assaults are likely to be the primary driver of this increase, potentially reaching around 35-40 incidents per year. Robberies may stabilize around 12-15 cases annually, while rape incidents could fluctuate between 5-10 cases per year. Murder rates are expected to remain low, with 0-2 incidents per year.

In summary, Glendale Heights has experienced fluctuating violent crime rates over the past decade, with a notable increase in recent years, particularly in aggravated assaults. Despite a slight population decline, the city has seen an overall rise in violent crimes, especially from 2018 to 2020. The changing racial demographics correlate with these crime trends, though this relationship requires careful interpretation. As the city moves forward, addressing the factors contributing to the rise in aggravated assaults should be a priority for local law enforcement and community leaders to ensure the safety and well-being of residents.