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Rising Aggravated Assaults Drive Violent Crime Surge in Converse, Texas
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Converse, Texas, located in Bexar County, has experienced significant changes in violent crime rates and population growth over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes in the city fluctuated, peaking at 173 incidents in 2017 before declining to 111 in 2022, representing a 35.8% decrease over this five-year period. Concurrently, the population grew from 31,273 in 2010 to 41,023 in 2022, a substantial increase of 31.2%.
Murder rates in the city have shown considerable variation. In 2010, there were 2 murders, representing 0.21% of state murders. The rate per 1,000 people was 0.064. By 2022, there was 1 murder, accounting for 0.06% of state murders, with a rate of 0.024 per 1,000 people. This represents a 62.5% decrease in the murder rate per capita over this period. The city experienced years with no murders (2011-2014) and a peak of 3 murders in 2017 and 2021. Despite population growth, the murder rate has generally declined, indicating an improvement in public safety regarding homicides.
Rape incidents have fluctuated significantly. In 2010, there were 2 reported rapes (0.03% of state total), or 0.064 per 1,000 people. By 2022, this increased to 6 incidents (0.05% of state total), or 0.146 per 1,000 people, representing a 128.1% increase in the per capita rate. The highest number of reported rapes was 16 in both 2014 and 2015. Despite the overall increase, the rate has decreased from its peak, suggesting recent improvements in addressing this crime.
Robbery trends show a general decline. In 2010, there were 12 robberies (0.04% of state total), or 0.384 per 1,000 people. By 2022, this decreased to 5 incidents (0.03% of state total), or 0.122 per 1,000 people, representing a 68.2% decrease in the per capita rate. The peak was 21 robberies in 2017. This consistent downward trend in robberies, even as the population grew, indicates improved safety measures and law enforcement strategies.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent violent crime in the city. In 2010, there were 15 incidents (0.03% of state total), or 0.480 per 1,000 people. This increased dramatically to 99 incidents in 2022 (0.13% of state total), or 2.413 per 1,000 people, representing a 402.7% increase in the per capita rate. The peak was 159 incidents in 2018. This substantial rise in aggravated assaults, outpacing population growth, suggests a concerning trend that requires focused attention from law enforcement and community leaders.
A strong correlation exists between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 3,311 per square mile in 2010 to 4,343 in 2022, violent crimes generally rose, particularly aggravated assaults. There's also a notable correlation between the Hispanic population percentage and violent crime rates. As the Hispanic population grew from 38% in 2013 to 46% in 2022, violent crimes, especially aggravated assaults, increased proportionally.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, it's forecasted that by 2029 (five years from now), the city may experience a slight decrease in murders and robberies, maintaining low rates of about 1-2 incidents per year for murders and 4-6 for robberies. Rape incidents are predicted to stabilize around 6-8 per year. However, aggravated assaults are projected to continue rising, potentially reaching 120-130 incidents annually if current trends persist.
In summary, Converse has shown mixed trends in violent crime rates amidst significant population growth. While murder and robbery rates have generally improved, the dramatic increase in aggravated assaults presents a major challenge. The correlations with population density and demographic shifts highlight the complex interplay between urban growth and crime rates. As the city continues to expand, focused efforts on mitigating aggravated assaults while maintaining the positive trends in other violent crime categories will be crucial for ensuring public safety and community well-being.
