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Reedley, California: Violent Crime Trends Outpacing Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Reedley, located in California, has experienced notable fluctuations in violent crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes increased by 7.25%, from 138 to 148 incidents. During this same period, the population grew by 3.66%, from 25,629 to 26,568 residents.
The murder rate in the city has shown significant variability. In 2010, there were 2 murders, representing 0.14% of the state's total. The rate fluctuated over the years, with no murders reported in several years (2012-2014, 2016-2017, 2020), and a peak of 3 murders in 2018 and 2022. The murder rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.078 in 2010 to 0.113 in 2022, a 44.87% increase. Despite this increase, the city's contribution to state murder rates remained relatively low, peaking at 0.22% in 2018.
Rape incidents have shown a general upward trend. In 2010, there were 9 reported rapes (0.13% of state total), which increased to 11 in 2022 (0.09% of state total). The rate per 1,000 people rose from 0.351 in 2010 to 0.414 in 2022, a 17.95% increase. However, the city's percentage of state rape cases decreased, indicating a slower growth rate compared to the state average.
Robbery rates have remained relatively stable. In 2010, there were 15 robberies (0.03% of state total), compared to 12 in 2022 (0.03% of state total). The rate per 1,000 people decreased slightly from 0.585 in 2010 to 0.452 in 2022, a 22.74% decrease. The city's contribution to state robbery rates has remained consistent, suggesting that local trends align with state-wide patterns.
Aggravated assault cases have seen an overall increase. In 2010, there were 112 cases (0.15% of state total), which rose to 122 in 2022 (0.12% of state total). The rate per 1,000 people increased from 4.37 in 2010 to 4.59 in 2022, a 5.03% increase. Despite this rise, the city's percentage of state aggravated assault cases decreased slightly, indicating a slower growth rate compared to the state average.
There appears to be a correlation between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 4,600 per square mile in 2010 to 4,768 in 2022, violent crime rates also showed an overall upward trend. Additionally, there seems to be a relationship between the Hispanic population percentage and violent crime rates. As the Hispanic population grew from 77% in 2013 to 80% in 2022, violent crime rates fluctuated but generally increased.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can expect the total number of violent crimes to continue its gradual increase, potentially reaching around 160-170 incidents annually. Murder rates may remain volatile but low, likely not exceeding 3-4 cases per year. Rape and robbery incidents are projected to stabilize or show a slight increase, while aggravated assault cases may continue their upward trend, potentially reaching 130-140 cases annually by 2029.
In summary, Reedley has experienced a moderate increase in violent crime rates over the past decade, with aggravated assault being the most prevalent and consistently rising category. The city's contribution to state crime rates has remained relatively low across all categories, suggesting that local crime trends are generally in line with or below state averages. The relationship between population density, demographic changes, and crime rates highlights the complex factors influencing public safety in this growing California community.
