Motor vehicle theft showed a more complex pattern. While there was an overall decrease from 29 incidents in 2010 to 15 in 2022 (a 48.3% reduction), there were fluctuations in between. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 1.22 in 2010 to 0.60 in 2022. Interestingly, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0.27% in 2010 to 0.41% in 2020, before dropping to 0.08% in 2022. This suggests that while the city has made progress in reducing motor vehicle thefts, it experienced periods where it was more affected by this crime relative to the rest of the state.

Arson cases in the city have been relatively low and inconsistent over the years. The highest number reported was 8 cases in 2010, with several years reporting zero incidents. The rate per 1,000 residents for arson was negligible in most years. The city's contribution to state arson cases varied widely, from 1.06% in 2010 to 0% in several years, including 2022. The low and sporadic nature of arson cases makes it difficult to discern a clear trend.

There appears to be a strong correlation between the decrease in property crimes and the increase in median income and home ownership rates. From 2013 to 2022, the median income rose from $44,573 to $56,296, while the percentage of owner-occupied homes increased from 52% to 60%. This suggests that as economic conditions improved for residents, property crime rates declined.

Applying predictive models based on the observed trends, it's projected that by 2029 (five years from now), property crime rates in Red Bank could potentially decrease further by 20-30% from 2022 levels, assuming current socioeconomic trends continue. However, this projection should be viewed cautiously as crime rates can be influenced by various unforeseen factors.

In conclusion, Red Bank has experienced a remarkable reduction in property crime rates across all categories over the past decade, particularly in burglary and larceny theft. This positive trend, coupled with population growth and improving economic indicators, suggests a generally safer and more prosperous community. The city's share of state crime has also decreased in most categories, indicating that it has outperformed the state average in crime reduction efforts.