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Rancho Viejo, Texas: A Decade of Consistently Low Violent Crime Rates Amidst Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Rancho Viejo in Texas presents an interesting case study in violent crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes fluctuated between 0 and 3 incidents per year, with no clear long-term trend. During this same period, the population grew from 2,739 in 2010 to 3,050 in 2022, an increase of about 11.4%.
An analysis of murder rates in the city reveals a consistently low incidence. Throughout the entire period from 2010 to 2022, there were no reported cases of murder and nonnegligent manslaughter. This translates to a murder rate of 0 per 1,000 people, which remained unchanged despite population growth. The percentage of state crime for murder also consistently stood at 0%, indicating that the city did not contribute to the state's murder statistics during this period.
Rape incidents in the city were similarly rare. Only one case was reported in 2010, with no other incidents recorded from 2011 to 2022. This single case in 2010 represented 0.02% of the state's total rape cases for that year. The rape rate per 1,000 people was approximately 0.37 in 2010 and dropped to 0 for the following years. This suggests a significant improvement in this aspect of public safety over time, especially considering the growing population.
Robbery trends in the city show minimal occurrence. Only one robbery was reported in 2015, with no incidents in other years from 2010 to 2022. This single case represented a rate of about 0.40 robberies per 1,000 people in 2015. The percentage of state robbery crimes attributed to the city was 0% for all years except 2015, where it likely represented a minimal fraction that rounded to 0% in the data.
Aggravated assault was the most common form of violent crime in the city, though still occurring at low rates. The number of aggravated assaults ranged from 0 to 3 per year, with the highest count of 3 incidents occurring in 2020. This peak corresponded to a rate of about 0.94 aggravated assaults per 1,000 people. The percentage of state aggravated assault crimes attributed to the city remained at 0% throughout the period, indicating that these incidents had a negligible impact on state-level statistics.
When examining correlations between violent crime and other factors, a weak relationship emerges with population density. As the population density increased from 1,334 people per square mile in 2010 to 1,486 in 2022, there was a slight uptick in the frequency of violent crimes, particularly aggravated assaults. However, this correlation is not strong enough to suggest a causal relationship.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests that the city is likely to maintain its low crime rates. Based on historical data, we can expect the number of violent crimes to remain between 0 and 3 incidents per year, with aggravated assault continuing to be the most prevalent type of violent crime. The murder rate is predicted to remain at zero, while rape and robbery incidents are expected to occur sporadically, if at all.
In summary, Rancho Viejo has maintained remarkably low violent crime rates despite population growth over the past decade. The absence of murders, infrequent occurrences of rape and robbery, and low rates of aggravated assault paint a picture of a relatively safe community. These findings suggest that local law enforcement strategies and community factors have been effective in maintaining public safety, positioning the city favorably in terms of violent crime statistics compared to state averages.
