Robbery cases have seen a significant decline. In 2010, there were 45 robberies, which decreased to 12 in 2022. This represents a drop from 1.67 to 0.40 robberies per 1,000 people. The city's percentage of state robberies also decreased from 0.54% to 0.50% during this period. This substantial reduction in robberies suggests improved safety measures or economic conditions in the city.

Aggravated assault incidents have fluctuated but show an overall decrease. In 2010, there were 51 cases, compared to 21 in 2022. This represents a decline from 1.89 to 0.71 aggravated assaults per 1,000 people. The city's percentage of state aggravated assaults decreased slightly from 0.59% to 0.37%. This trend indicates a general improvement in public safety regarding violent confrontations.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 6,924 per square mile in 2010 to 7,613 in 2022, the overall violent crime rate decreased. Additionally, there seems to be a correlation between changes in racial demographics and crime rates. As the Hispanic population increased from 25% in 2013 to 26% in 2022, and the Asian population grew from 2% to 6%, violent crime rates declined. This suggests that increasing diversity may be associated with lower crime rates in the city.

Applying predictive models based on these trends, it is forecasted that by 2029, Rahway may see a further reduction in overall violent crime rates. The model suggests that robberies and aggravated assaults may continue to decrease, while rape incidents could potentially stabilize or slightly increase if current trends persist. Murder rates are expected to remain low but may fluctuate given their infrequent occurrence.

In summary, Rahway has experienced a significant reduction in violent crime over the past decade, particularly in robberies and aggravated assaults. This positive trend has occurred alongside population growth and increasing diversity. However, the rise in rape incidents presents a concern that may require targeted intervention. The city's changing demographics and increasing population density appear to correlate with improved safety overall, suggesting that community development and diversity may play a role in crime reduction. As Rahway continues to evolve, maintaining these positive trends while addressing specific areas of concern will be crucial for the city's future safety and development.