Motor vehicle theft in the city showed a slight increase over the study period, from 38 incidents in 2010 to 41 in 2022, a 7.9% rise. However, when accounting for population growth, the rate per 1,000 residents actually decreased slightly from 1.41 in 2010 to 1.38 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts varied between 0.38% and 0.86%, settling at 0.63% in 2022. This suggests that while the raw number of motor vehicle thefts has increased slightly, the city's contribution to state statistics has remained relatively stable.

Arson cases in the city have fluctuated over the years, with no clear trend. The number of arsons ranged from 0 to 6 per year, with 5 cases reported in 2022. Due to the low numbers, the rate per 1,000 residents and the percentage of state arsons showed high variability, making it difficult to draw meaningful conclusions about trends.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a moderate negative correlation between median income and property crime rates. As the median income increased from $65,910 in 2013 to $83,179 in 2022, the overall property crime rate decreased. This suggests that improving economic conditions may have contributed to the reduction in property crimes.

Population density showed a weak positive correlation with property crime rates. As the density increased from 6,924 people per square mile in 2010 to 7,613 in 2022, property crime rates generally decreased, indicating that other factors likely had a more significant impact on crime reduction.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next seven years (up to 2029) suggests a continuation of the overall downward trend in property crimes. Based on the historical data, we can estimate that by 2029: Burglaries may decrease to around 15-20 incidents per year. Larceny theft could potentially drop to approximately 180-200 cases annually. Motor vehicle theft might stabilize around 35-40 incidents per year. Arson cases are likely to remain low, with 0-3 incidents annually.

In summary, Rahway has experienced a significant overall reduction in property crimes from 2010 to 2022, despite population growth. The most notable improvements were seen in burglary and larceny theft rates, while motor vehicle theft remained relatively stable. The correlation between rising median incomes and decreasing crime rates suggests that economic factors may have played a role in this positive trend. As the city continues to evolve, maintaining focus on economic development and community-based crime prevention strategies could help sustain and potentially improve upon these encouraging property crime trends in Rahway.