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Property Crime Trends in Zanesville, Ohio: A Decade of Significant Reduction
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Zanesville, Ohio, a city with a rich history dating back to the early 19th century, has experienced significant changes in its property crime landscape over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes in Zanesville decreased by 47.7%, from 1,668 to 872 incidents. This substantial reduction occurred while the city's population remained relatively stable, growing by only 0.48% from 31,738 to 31,891 residents during the same period.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a marked decline over the years. In 2010, there were 296 burglaries, which dropped to 77 in 2022, representing a 74% decrease. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 9.33 per 1,000 people in 2010 to 2.41 per 1,000 in 2022. Interestingly, while the number of burglaries decreased, the city's share of state burglaries fluctuated. In 2010, Zanesville accounted for 0.39% of Ohio's burglaries, peaking at 0.58% in 2013, before settling at 0.36% in 2022. This suggests that while the city has made significant progress in reducing burglaries, its improvements have generally been in line with statewide trends.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, also saw a substantial decrease. In 2010, there were 1,319 larceny-theft incidents, which reduced to 770 in 2022, a 41.6% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents dropped from 41.56 in 2010 to 24.14 in 2022. However, the city's share of state larceny-theft incidents actually decreased from 0.86% in 2010 to 0.75% in 2022, indicating that the city's improvements in this category slightly outpaced the state average.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has shown more volatility but an overall decreasing trend. In 2010, there were 53 motor vehicle thefts, which decreased to 25 in 2022, a 52.8% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 1.67 in 2010 to 0.78 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated, starting at 0.32% in 2010, peaking at 0.39% in 2018, and dropping to 0.11% in 2022, suggesting significant improvement relative to state trends in recent years.
Arson incidents in the city have shown considerable variability. In 2010, there were 26 arson cases, which decreased to just 1 in 2022, a 96.2% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents dropped from 0.82 in 2010 to 0.03 in 2022. The city's share of state arson cases fluctuated significantly, from 0.95% in 2010 to a peak of 1.23% in 2017, before falling to 0.12% in 2022. This volatility suggests that arson trends in the city may be influenced by specific local factors or incidents rather than following broader state patterns.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a moderate negative correlation between median income and property crime rates. As the median income increased from $32,376 in 2013 to $41,319 in 2022, total property crimes decreased from 1,601 to 872 during the same period. This suggests that improving economic conditions may have contributed to the reduction in property crimes.
Applying predictive models to forecast future trends, it's estimated that by 2029 (five years from now), Zanesville could see its total property crimes reduce further to around 650-700 incidents annually, assuming current trends continue. This would represent a potential 20-25% decrease from 2022 levels.
In conclusion, Zanesville has made significant strides in reducing property crime over the past decade, with improvements across all categories, particularly in burglary and arson. The city's progress often outpaced state averages, especially in recent years. The correlation between rising median income and decreasing crime rates suggests that continued economic development could play a crucial role in sustaining and furthering these positive trends in Zanesville's fight against property crime.
