Motor vehicle theft trends have been inconsistent but show an overall increase. From no reported cases in 2010, the number rose to 6 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0 to 0.43 over this period. The city's contribution to state motor vehicle thefts grew from 0% to 0.04%. This trend, while concerning, should be viewed in the context of the city's growth and may reflect increased opportunities for this type of crime as the population and vehicle ownership expanded.

Arson data for the city shows no reported incidents throughout the entire period from 2010 to 2022. This consistent absence of arson cases is a positive indicator of community safety and effective fire prevention measures.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and socioeconomic factors reveals interesting patterns. As the population density increased from 4,722 per square mile in 2010 to 7,495 in 2022, overall property crime rates per capita decreased. This suggests that the growing density has not led to an increase in property crimes, possibly due to increased community vigilance or improved law enforcement strategies.

There appears to be a strong positive correlation between rising median income and decreasing property crime rates. The median income rose from $61,460 in 2013 to $84,418 in 2022, coinciding with the overall reduction in property crimes. This trend might indicate that improved economic conditions have contributed to reduced property crime rates.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continuation of the overall downward trend in property crimes, with potential fluctuations. Burglary rates are expected to remain low, possibly stabilizing around 2-4 incidents per year. Larceny-theft is projected to continue its gradual decline, potentially reaching around 30-35 incidents annually by 2029. Motor vehicle theft may show a slight increase, potentially reaching 7-8 incidents per year, reflecting the city's growth. Arson incidents are predicted to remain at or near zero, maintaining the city's positive track record.

In summary, Youngsville has demonstrated a generally positive trend in property crime reduction despite significant population growth. The most notable improvements have been in burglary and larceny-theft rates, while motor vehicle theft has shown a slight increase. These trends, coupled with rising median incomes and increasing population density, paint a picture of a growing community that has managed to enhance its safety and security. The forecasted trends suggest a continued positive outlook for property crime rates in Youngsville, reflecting effective law enforcement strategies and community engagement in crime prevention.