Motor vehicle theft trends have been more variable. In 2010, there were 8 motor vehicle thefts, which increased to 15 by 2022, an 87.5% increase. The rate per 1,000 people rose from 0.59 in 2010 to 1.08 in 2022. However, the city's percentage of state motor vehicle thefts remained relatively stable, changing from 0.08% in 2010 to 0.08% in 2022, indicating that this increase may be part of a broader trend across the state.

Arson cases in Winchester have fluctuated but remained low overall. In 2010, there were 2 arsons reported, and this number was 3 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people increased slightly from 0.15 in 2010 to 0.22 in 2022. The city's share of state arson cases rose significantly from 0.26% in 2010 to 0.56% in 2022, suggesting a potential increase in the relative concentration of arson cases in the city compared to the state.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between property crime rates and median income. As median income increased from $49,687 in 2013 to $54,052 in 2020, property crime rates generally decreased. Additionally, there seems to be a weak correlation between the slight increase in racial diversity and property crime trends. The percentage of white residents decreased from 86% in 2013 to 82% in 2022, while overall property crime rates declined during this period.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can anticipate a continuation of the overall downward trend in property crimes. Based on current trajectories, total property crimes could potentially decrease to around 220-230 incidents per year by 2029. Burglaries may continue to decline, possibly reaching 25-30 cases annually. Larceny-theft is likely to remain the most common property crime but could decrease to approximately 180-190 incidents per year. Motor vehicle thefts might stabilize or slightly increase to 16-18 cases annually, while arson cases are expected to remain low, fluctuating between 1-3 incidents per year.

In summary, Winchester has experienced a notable overall reduction in property crimes from 2010 to 2022, particularly in burglaries and larceny-thefts. This positive trend has occurred alongside modest population growth and increases in median income. The city's evolving demographic composition and economic factors appear to have some influence on crime rates. While challenges remain, particularly with motor vehicle thefts, the overall trajectory suggests improving public safety conditions in Winchester.