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Property Crime Trends in Winchester, Kansas: A Study of Fluctuating Rates in a Growing Community
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Winchester, located in Kansas, presents an interesting case study for property crime trends. Over the years from 2010 to 2015, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, starting at 4 in 2010, remaining steady in 2011, rising to 7 in 2013, and then decreasing to 3 in 2015. This represents a 25% decrease in property crimes over this period. Concurrently, the population grew from 1,242 in 2010 to 1,311 in 2015, an increase of about 5.6%.
The larceny-theft trend shows some variation over the years. In 2010 and 2011, there were 4 incidents reported each year. This number increased to 7 in 2013, representing a 75% increase from 2011. However, by 2015, the number dropped significantly to 2 incidents, a 71.4% decrease from 2013. When considering the population, the rate of larceny-theft per 1,000 people changed from 3.22 in 2010 to 1.53 in 2015. The percentage of state larceny-theft remained consistently low at 0.01% from 2010 to 2013, dropping slightly to 0% in 2015. This suggests that while larceny-theft fluctuated within the city, it remained a very small fraction of the state's total.
Motor vehicle theft data shows an interesting trend. From 2010 to 2013, there were no reported incidents. However, in 2015, there was 1 reported case of motor vehicle theft. This represents an infinite percentage increase, though the actual numbers remain very low. The rate per 1,000 people went from 0 to 0.76 in 2015. Notably, despite only one incident, this represented 0.02% of the state's motor vehicle thefts in 2015, indicating a disproportionate impact on state statistics relative to the city's size.
The data for burglary and arson show no reported incidents from 2010 to 2015, consistently representing 0% of state totals for these crimes. This suggests that these types of property crimes were not significant issues in the city during this period.
When examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between property crime rates and median income. As the median income increased from $53,210 in 2013 to $60,032 in 2015, the total property crimes decreased from 7 to 3. However, the limited data points make it difficult to establish a strong correlation.
Applying predictive models based on the available data, it's challenging to make accurate forecasts due to the limited and fluctuating nature of the crime statistics. However, if we extrapolate from the overall decreasing trend in property crimes, we might cautiously predict that by 2029, the city could see property crime rates stabilize at around 2-3 incidents per year, assuming other factors remain constant.
In summary, Winchester has experienced fluctuating but generally decreasing property crime rates from 2010 to 2015, with larceny-theft being the most common type of property crime. The city has maintained very low crime rates relative to state totals, with some years showing no incidents in certain categories. The inverse relationship between rising median income and decreasing crime rates, while not definitively causal, suggests a potentially positive economic influence on crime reduction in the city.
