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Property Crime Trends in Willoughby, Ohio: A Decade of Improvement Amid Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Willoughby, located in Ohio, has experienced notable changes in property crime rates over the past decade, alongside modest population growth. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 38.2%, from 374 to 231 incidents. During this same period, the population increased by 7.2%, from 22,233 to 23,823 residents.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a significant decline over time. In 2010, there were 64 burglaries reported, which decreased to 15 in 2022, representing a 76.6% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 2.88 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 0.63 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated but generally decreased, from 0.08% in 2010 to 0.07% in 2022. This substantial reduction in burglaries suggests improved home security measures or more effective law enforcement strategies in the area.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, also saw a downward trend. Incidents decreased from 299 in 2010 to 204 in 2022, a 31.8% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents dropped from 13.45 in 2010 to 8.56 in 2022. However, the city's share of state larceny-thefts remained relatively stable, hovering around 0.2% throughout the period. This indicates that while larceny-theft has decreased locally, the reduction is somewhat in line with state-wide trends.
Motor vehicle theft showed some fluctuation but ultimately increased slightly. There were 11 incidents in 2010, which rose to 12 in 2022, a 9.1% increase. However, when accounting for population growth, the rate per 1,000 residents remained relatively stable, changing from 0.49 in 2010 to 0.50 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased from 0.07% to 0.05%, suggesting that despite the slight local increase, the city is experiencing a lower proportion of these crimes compared to the state average.
Arson cases in the city have been relatively low and inconsistent over the years. There were no reported arsons in 2010 and 2022, but the city did experience a peak of 5 incidents in 2014. Due to the low numbers, it's difficult to establish a clear trend or make meaningful comparisons to state percentages for this particular crime.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the median income increased from $54,873 in 2013 to $68,315 in 2022, there was a corresponding decrease in overall property crime rates. This suggests that improved economic conditions may contribute to lower crime rates. Additionally, the slight increase in population density from 2,171 per square mile in 2010 to 2,327 in 2022 did not appear to negatively impact property crime rates, as one might expect in more densely populated areas.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued overall decline in property crimes. Based on the current trends, we can expect burglaries to potentially decrease further, possibly reaching single digits annually. Larceny-theft is likely to continue its downward trajectory, potentially dropping below 200 incidents per year. Motor vehicle theft may stabilize or show a slight increase, but is unlikely to surpass 20 incidents annually. Arson cases are expected to remain low and sporadic.
In summary, Willoughby has demonstrated a positive trend in reducing property crimes over the past decade, particularly in burglaries and larceny-thefts. This improvement, coupled with rising median incomes and stable population growth, suggests an overall enhancement in the quality of life and security for residents. The city's ability to maintain lower crime rates despite population growth is particularly noteworthy and may serve as a model for other similar-sized communities in Ohio.
