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Property Crime Trends in Williamsport: Little League Host City Sees Significant Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Williamsport, located in Pennsylvania, has experienced significant changes in property crime rates over the past decade, alongside notable population shifts. From 2010 to 2018, the total number of property crimes decreased by 47%, from 1,220 to 646 incidents. During this same period, the city's population declined by 2.5%, from 29,509 to 28,759 residents.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a substantial decline over time. In 2010, there were 232 burglaries reported, which decreased to 84 cases by 2018, representing a 63.8% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 7.86 per 1,000 people in 2010 to 2.92 per 1,000 in 2018. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, starting at 0.91% in 2010, peaking at 1.03% in 2012 and 2013, before dropping to 0.64% in 2018. This trend suggests improved home security measures or more effective law enforcement strategies targeting burglaries.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, also experienced a significant decrease. In 2010, there were 954 larceny-theft incidents, which reduced to 543 by 2018, a 43.1% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents dropped from 32.33 in 2010 to 18.88 in 2018. The city's proportion of state larceny-theft cases remained relatively stable, ranging from 1.23% in 2010 to 0.84% in 2018, indicating that the reduction in larceny-theft was part of a broader statewide trend.
Motor vehicle theft showed a more modest decline. In 2010, there were 34 reported cases, which decreased to 19 in 2018, a 44.1% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 1.15 in 2010 to 0.66 in 2018. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts remained low, decreasing from 0.32% in 2010 to 0.22% in 2018, suggesting that motor vehicle theft was not a major concern relative to other areas in the state.
Arson cases in the city fluctuated over the years but showed an overall downward trend. From 19 cases in 2010, it decreased to 6 cases in 2018, a 68.4% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents dropped from 0.64 in 2010 to 0.21 in 2018. Despite the decrease in absolute numbers, the city's share of state arson cases remained relatively high, ranging from 3.14% in 2010 to 0.72% in 2018, indicating that arson remained a significant concern compared to other areas in the state.
Analysis of correlations reveals a strong inverse relationship between property crime rates and median income. As the median income increased from $37,379 in 2013 to $42,404 in 2018, total property crimes decreased from 1,158 to 646. This suggests that improving economic conditions may contribute to reduced property crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends, it's estimated that by 2029, the city could see a further reduction in property crimes to approximately 400-450 incidents annually, assuming current socioeconomic trends continue.
In conclusion, Williamsport has made significant strides in reducing property crime rates across all categories over the past decade. The most notable improvements were seen in burglary and larceny-theft, which saw substantial decreases both in absolute numbers and rates per capita. These positive trends, coupled with rising median incomes, suggest an improving quality of life for residents. However, the persistently high share of state arson cases indicates that this remains an area requiring continued attention and targeted prevention strategies.
