Motor vehicle theft showed a more modest decline. There were 89 incidents in 2010, which decreased to 52 in 2022, a 41.6% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 2.15 in 2010 to 1.18 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated, starting at 0.83% in 2010, peaking at 4.26% in 2019, and then decreasing to 0.39% in 2022. This trend indicates that the city has made progress in reducing motor vehicle thefts, particularly in recent years.

Arson cases in the city have shown volatility over the years. There were 8 incidents in 2010, which increased to 10 in 2022, a 25% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents increased slightly from 0.19 in 2010 to 0.23 in 2022. The city's percentage of state arson cases fluctuated, starting at 1.32% in 2010, dropping to 0.6% in 2018, and then rising to 1.71% in 2022. This trend suggests that while arson remains a concern, its prevalence relative to the state has not changed dramatically.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The decline in property crimes coincided with a steady increase in median income, from $33,195 in 2013 to $42,208 in 2022. This suggests that improved economic conditions may have contributed to reduced property crime rates. Additionally, the city experienced a significant shift in racial demographics, with the white population decreasing from 72% in 2013 to 54% in 2022, while the Hispanic population increased from 13% to 29% during the same period. This demographic change occurred alongside the overall reduction in property crimes, indicating that the city's evolving diversity did not negatively impact crime rates.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued decline in overall property crime rates, albeit at a slower pace. Burglaries are expected to stabilize around 70-80 incidents per year, while larceny-theft may decrease further to approximately 500 cases annually. Motor vehicle theft is projected to remain relatively stable at 50-55 incidents per year, and arson cases are expected to fluctuate between 8-12 incidents annually.

In summary, Wilkes-Barre has made significant strides in reducing property crime rates over the past decade, particularly in burglary and larceny-theft. These improvements have occurred against a backdrop of population growth, increasing median income, and shifting demographics. The city's ability to maintain lower crime rates while undergoing these changes suggests effective law enforcement strategies and community engagement. As the city continues to evolve, maintaining these positive trends will be crucial for ensuring the ongoing safety and well-being of its residents.