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Property Crime Trends in Wilder, Idaho: A Small City's Fluctuating Safety Landscape
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Wilder, located in Idaho, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. Over the period from 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes fluctuated significantly, starting at 22 in 2010, peaking at 28 in 2016, and ending at 18 in 2022, representing an overall decrease of 18.18%. During this same timeframe, the population grew from 2,568 in 2010 to 3,215 in 2022, marking a 25.19% increase.
Burglary trends in the city have shown notable variations. In 2010, there were 5 burglaries, which remained consistent through 2014. A peak of 7 burglaries was observed in 2015 and 2016, followed by a decrease to 2 in 2018, and then rising again to 7 in 2022. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 1.95 in 2010 to 2.18 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries increased substantially from 0.12% in 2010 to 0.34% in 2022, indicating a growing concentration of burglaries relative to the state average.
Larceny theft exhibited a downward trend overall. From 17 incidents in 2010, it decreased to 8 in 2022, a 52.94% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 6.62 in 2010 to 2.49 in 2022. However, the city's proportion of state larceny thefts remained relatively stable, moving from 0.09% in 2010 to 0.08% in 2022, suggesting that the decrease in larceny theft was broadly in line with state trends.
Motor vehicle theft trends were more erratic. There were no reported incidents in 2010 and 2013, with peaks of 5 thefts in 2016 and 3 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0 in 2010 to 0.93 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts rose from 0% in 2010 to 0.25% in 2022, indicating a disproportionate increase compared to state averages.
Arson incidents were rare, with only one reported case in 2016, representing 0.74% of state arsons that year. This isolated incident translates to a rate of 0.34 per 1,000 residents for 2016.
Examining correlations, a strong relationship emerges between property crime rates and population density. As the population density increased from 3,523 per square mile in 2010 to 4,411 in 2022, property crime rates generally decreased, suggesting improved community vigilance or law enforcement effectiveness in a more densely populated environment.
Additionally, there appears to be a correlation between rising median income and declining property crime rates. The median income increased from $40,184 in 2013 to $58,478 in 2022, coinciding with an overall decrease in property crimes. This trend suggests that improved economic conditions may contribute to reduced property crime rates.
Applying predictive models based on historical trends, it's projected that by 2029, Wilder may experience a slight increase in burglaries to approximately 8-9 incidents annually. Larceny theft is expected to stabilize around 7-8 cases per year. Motor vehicle thefts might see a modest increase to 4-5 incidents annually. Arson is predicted to remain rare, with possibly one incident every few years.
In summary, Wilder has demonstrated a complex pattern of property crime trends from 2010 to 2022. While overall property crime has decreased, individual categories show varying trends. The most significant changes include the substantial increase in the city's share of state burglaries and motor vehicle thefts, contrasted with a decrease in larceny theft. These trends, coupled with population growth and rising median income, paint a picture of a changing urban landscape where economic improvements may be influencing crime patterns. As Wilder continues to evolve, ongoing monitoring of these trends will be crucial for maintaining community safety and effective law enforcement strategies.
