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Property Crime Trends in Wheaton, Missouri: A Decade of Dramatic Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Wheaton, located in Missouri, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends. Over the period from 2010 to 2020, the city experienced a notable shift in its property crime landscape, with total reported incidents decreasing from 7 in 2010 to 0 by 2014, a 100% reduction. This dramatic change occurred against a backdrop of population fluctuation, with the city's population declining from 878 in 2010 to 674 in 2020, a decrease of 23.2%.
The burglary rate in the city showed significant variation in the early years of the decade. In 2010, there were 2 reported burglaries, which represented 0.01% of the state's total. This figure increased to 4 in 2012, doubling the rate to 4.61 incidents per 1,000 residents. However, by 2013, burglaries had decreased to just 1 incident, and from 2014 onwards, no burglaries were reported. This trend suggests a substantial improvement in residential and commercial security within the city.
Larceny-theft incidents followed a similar pattern of decline. The city reported 4 cases in 2010, dropping to 3 in 2011 and 2013, with 4 cases again in 2012. From 2014 onward, no larceny-theft incidents were reported. The rate per 1,000 residents peaked in 2012 at 4.61 before falling to zero. Notably, the percentage of state larceny-theft remained at 0% throughout the period, indicating that these incidents had minimal impact on statewide statistics.
Motor vehicle theft in the city was rare, with only one reported incident in 2010 and another in 2011. These incidents represented 0.01% of the state's total in each of those years. From 2012 onwards, no motor vehicle thefts were reported, suggesting effective prevention measures or a shift in criminal activities away from this type of offense.
Arson cases were exceptionally rare, with only one incident reported in 2010, representing 0.1% of the state's total that year. No arson cases were reported in subsequent years, indicating either successful fire prevention efforts or a lack of this specific criminal activity in the area.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and socioeconomic factors reveals interesting patterns. The sharp decline in property crimes coincided with a period of decreasing population density, which fell from 1,727 per square mile in 2010 to 1,326 in 2020. Concurrently, the median income showed an upward trend, rising from $25,781 in 2013 to $35,405.5 in 2020. The percentage of owner-occupied housing also increased from 55% in 2013 to 59% in 2020. These trends suggest that improved economic conditions and higher rates of homeownership may have contributed to the reduction in property crimes.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) is challenging given the zero-incident reports from 2014 onwards. However, if current socioeconomic trends continue, with rising median incomes and stable or increasing homeownership rates, it's reasonable to predict that property crime rates will remain very low or at zero for the foreseeable future.
In summary, Wheaton has demonstrated a remarkable transformation in its property crime landscape. The complete elimination of reported property crimes since 2014, coupled with improving economic indicators and stable community demographics, paints a picture of a city that has effectively addressed security concerns. This trend, if maintained, positions Wheaton as a model for small-city crime reduction and community safety enhancement.
