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Property Crime Trends in Westfield, NJ: A Decade of Divergent Patterns
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Westfield, a town in New Jersey, has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade, set against a backdrop of modest population growth. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 1.69%, from 237 to 233 incidents. During this same period, the population increased by 2.98%, from 29,946 to 30,839 residents.
Burglary trends in the city have shown significant volatility. In 2010, there were 43 burglaries, which peaked at 58 in 2013 and 2016, before sharply declining to 13 in 2022. This represents a 69.77% decrease over the 12-year period. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 1.44 in 2010 to 0.42 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, starting at 0.25% in 2010, peaking at 0.54% in 2016, and settling at 0.27% in 2022. This trend suggests improved home security measures or more effective law enforcement strategies targeting burglaries.
Larceny theft, the most common property crime in Westfield, exhibited a downward trend. In 2010, there were 185 incidents, which rose to a high of 279 in 2011 before gradually declining to 193 in 2022, marking a 4.32% decrease over the period. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 6.18 in 2010 to 6.26 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny thefts increased from 0.39% in 2010 to 0.53% in 2022, indicating that while local incidents decreased, they did so at a slower rate than the state average.
Motor vehicle theft trends showed a concerning increase. In 2010, there were 9 incidents, which remained relatively stable until 2017 when it jumped to 28. By 2022, there were 27 motor vehicle thefts, representing a 200% increase from 2010. The rate per 1,000 residents rose from 0.30 in 2010 to 0.88 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased dramatically from 0.09% in 2010 to 0.41% in 2022, suggesting this crime type became a more significant issue in Westfield relative to the rest of the state.
Arson incidents in Westfield were negligible throughout the period, with only one reported case in 2011. This consistently low rate suggests that arson is not a significant concern for the community.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between property crime trends and demographic changes. As the Asian population increased from 5% in 2013 to 8% in 2022, and the Hispanic population grew from 5% to 8% over the same period, overall property crime rates decreased. This suggests that increased diversity may have contributed to a more stable community environment. Additionally, the rise in median income from $145,933 in 2013 to $140,891 in 2022, despite a slight dip, coincided with the overall decrease in property crimes, indicating that economic stability may play a role in crime reduction.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continued gradual decrease in overall property crimes. Burglaries are expected to stabilize at around 10-15 incidents annually. Larceny theft is projected to continue its slow decline, potentially reaching around 170-180 cases per year. However, motor vehicle thefts are predicted to remain elevated, possibly fluctuating between 25-30 incidents annually unless targeted interventions are implemented.
In summary, Westfield has experienced a generally positive trend in property crime reduction over the past decade, with significant improvements in burglary rates and modest declines in larceny theft. However, the sharp increase in motor vehicle thefts presents a challenge that may require focused attention from law enforcement and community stakeholders. The town's changing demographics and economic stability appear to have played a role in these trends, suggesting that continued focus on community integration and economic development could further enhance public safety in Westfield.
