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Property Crime Trends in West Point, Nebraska: A Decade of Fluctuations in a Small Midwestern City
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
West Point, Nebraska, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. This small Midwestern city, with a population of 4,110 in 2022, has experienced fluctuations in both its population and property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes varied significantly, with a notable increase from 6 in 2010 to 5 in 2022, representing a 16.67% decrease. During this same period, the population decreased by 4.26%, from 4,293 in 2010 to 4,110 in 2022.
Burglary trends in the city have shown considerable variation over time. In 2010, there were 3 burglaries reported, which decreased to 1 in 2022, marking a 66.67% reduction. The burglary rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 0.70 in 2010 to 0.24 in 2022. Interestingly, the city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, peaking at 0.1% in 2019 before decreasing to 0.03% in 2022. This trend suggests that while burglaries have generally decreased, the city's contribution to state-wide burglary incidents has remained relatively low.
Larceny-theft incidents in the city have shown an overall increase, despite some fluctuations. From 3 cases in 2010, the number rose to 4 in 2022, a 33.33% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents increased slightly from 0.70 in 2010 to 0.97 in 2022. The city's share of state larceny-theft incidents increased from 0.01% in 2010 to 0.02% in 2022, indicating a growing contribution to the state's total, albeit still at a low level.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has been relatively rare, with no reported cases in most years. However, there was a spike in 2020 with 3 reported thefts, representing 0.08% of the state's total. By 2022, this number had returned to zero. The sporadic nature of these incidents makes it difficult to establish a clear trend, but it suggests that motor vehicle theft is not a persistent problem in the city.
Arson cases have been consistently reported as zero throughout the entire period from 2010 to 2022. This absence of arson incidents indicates that it is not a significant concern for the city and has not contributed to the state's arson statistics.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a moderate negative correlation between median income and property crime rates. As the median income increased from $47,486 in 2013 to $57,897 in 2022, there was a general trend of decreasing property crimes, despite some fluctuations. Additionally, there seems to be a weak positive correlation between homeownership rates and property crime rates. The percentage of owner-occupied homes increased from 67% in 2013 to 74% in 2022, while property crime rates showed some increase during this period.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential stabilization or slight decrease in overall property crime rates. Based on the historical data and current trends, it's projected that burglary rates may continue to decrease marginally, while larceny-theft incidents might plateau or show a slight increase. Motor vehicle theft is expected to remain low, with possible sporadic occurrences. Arson cases are predicted to remain at zero, continuing the city's trend of no reported incidents.
In summary, West Point has experienced a complex evolution in its property crime landscape. The most significant discoveries include the overall decrease in burglaries, the slight increase in larceny-theft, and the sporadic nature of motor vehicle thefts. The absence of arson cases throughout the studied period is also noteworthy. These trends, combined with the city's changing demographics and economic factors, paint a picture of a community that, while facing some challenges, has maintained relatively low property crime rates compared to state averages.
