Motor vehicle theft in the city has decreased overall. From 85 incidents in 2010, the number dropped to 41 in 2022, a 51.8% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 1.76 in 2010 to 0.78 in 2022. However, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased only slightly from 0.86% to 0.63%, indicating that the reduction was roughly in line with state trends. This improvement could be attributed to better vehicle security systems or increased police vigilance.

Arson cases have shown a dramatic decrease, from 7 incidents in 2010 to 0 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents dropped from 0.14 to 0. The city's proportion of state arsons fell from 1.55% to 0%, suggesting a more significant improvement compared to state trends. This could indicate successful fire prevention education or improved fire investigation and deterrence.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As median income increased from $54,012 in 2013 to $66,357 in 2022, total property crimes decreased from 518 to 603. The Hispanic population, which remained stable at around 77% from 2013 to 2022, doesn't show a strong correlation with crime trends. However, the slight increase in homeownership from 20% in 2013 to 24% in 2022 might have contributed to the overall decrease in burglaries.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continued gradual decrease in overall property crime rates. Burglaries are expected to stabilize at around 50-60 incidents annually. Larceny-theft may see a slight increase, potentially reaching 550-600 cases per year. Motor vehicle theft is projected to remain relatively stable at 40-50 incidents annually. Arson cases are expected to remain very low, with possibly sporadic occurrences.

In summary, West New York has made significant strides in reducing most types of property crimes over the past decade, particularly in burglary and motor vehicle theft. The increase in larceny-theft, however, warrants attention. The city's improving economic indicators, such as rising median income and homeownership rates, appear to correlate with the overall positive trends in property crime reduction. Moving forward, focused efforts on preventing larceny-theft while maintaining the progress made in other areas will be crucial for continued improvement in the city's property crime landscape.