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Property Crime Trends in Webb City, Missouri: A Decade of Fluctuations
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Webb City, Missouri, a small city with a rich history in mining, has experienced significant changes in its property crime landscape over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, starting at 443 in 2010, peaking at 631 in 2014, and ending at 510 in 2022, representing an overall increase of 15.1%. During this same period, the population grew from 10,829 to 12,764, an increase of 17.9%.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a notable decline over time. In 2010, there were 55 burglaries, which dropped to 44 by 2022, a decrease of 20%. When adjusted for population growth, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents fell from 5.08 in 2010 to 3.45 in 2022, a significant reduction of 32.1%. Interestingly, despite this local decrease, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.17% in 2010 to 0.33% in 2022, suggesting a potentially more pronounced decline in burglaries at the state level.
Larceny theft, the most common property crime in the city, has shown fluctuations over the years. From 358 incidents in 2010, it rose to a peak of 567 in 2014 before declining to 411 in 2022, representing a net increase of 14.8%. However, when accounting for population growth, the rate per 1,000 residents actually decreased slightly from 33.06 in 2010 to 32.20 in 2022, a 2.6% reduction. The city's contribution to state larceny theft incidents increased from 0.31% to 0.53% over this period, indicating that the city's larceny theft rates may not have decreased as rapidly as the state average.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has seen a concerning upward trend. From 30 incidents in 2010, it increased to 55 in 2022, a substantial 83.3% rise. The rate per 1,000 residents grew from 2.77 to 4.31, a 55.6% increase. Despite this local increase, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts remained relatively stable, moving from 0.23% to 0.23%, suggesting that this trend might be reflective of broader state-wide patterns.
Arson incidents in the city have remained relatively low but showed some fluctuation. From no reported cases in 2010, there were 2 incidents reported in 2022. While this represents an increase, the small numbers make it difficult to draw significant conclusions. The city's contribution to state arson cases increased from 0% to 0.33%, which could indicate either improved reporting or a relative increase compared to state trends.
Examining correlations between crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The increase in property crimes, particularly motor vehicle thefts, coincides with a period of population growth and increasing population density, which rose from 1,253 per square mile in 2010 to 1,477 in 2022. Additionally, the median income saw a significant increase from $43,110 in 2013 to $61,071 in 2022, a 41.7% rise. This income growth occurred alongside the fluctuations in property crime rates, suggesting a complex relationship between economic factors and crime patterns.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential continuation of recent patterns. Burglaries are projected to stabilize or slightly decrease, while larceny theft may see modest increases in line with population growth. Motor vehicle thefts, if the current trend continues, could see further increases, potentially reaching around 70-75 incidents annually by 2029. Arson incidents are expected to remain low but unpredictable due to their rare occurrence.
In summary, Webb City has experienced a complex evolution in its property crime landscape from 2010 to 2022. While burglaries have decreased significantly, both in absolute numbers and per capita rates, larceny theft and motor vehicle theft have shown increases, particularly when viewed as a share of state totals. These trends, occurring against a backdrop of population growth and increasing median income, paint a picture of a changing urban environment grappling with evolving crime patterns. As the city continues to grow and develop, addressing these property crime trends, especially the rise in motor vehicle thefts, will be crucial for maintaining community safety and quality of life.
