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Property Crime Trends in Weaver, Alabama: A Decade of Resilience Amid Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Weaver, located in Alabama, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends. From 2010 to 2022, the city experienced fluctuations in total property crimes, with a notable overall decrease from 72 incidents in 2010 to 77 in 2022, representing a 6.94% increase. During this same period, the population grew significantly from 4,271 in 2010 to 5,025 in 2022, a 17.65% increase.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a downward trend over the years. In 2010, there were 23 burglaries, which increased to a peak of 52 in 2015 before declining to 20 in 2022. When considering population growth, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 5.39 in 2010 to 3.98 in 2022. Interestingly, the city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, rising from 0.1% in 2010 to 0.23% in 2015, then settling at 0.18% in 2022. This suggests that while burglaries have decreased overall, the city's contribution to state burglary statistics has slightly increased.
Larceny-theft incidents have shown more variability. Starting at 48 cases in 2010, they peaked at 92 in 2012 before declining to 51 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 11.24 in 2010 to 10.15 in 2022. The city's percentage of state larceny-theft cases increased from 0.07% in 2010 to 0.11% in 2022, indicating a growing share of these crimes relative to the state despite the local decrease.
Motor vehicle theft trends have been inconsistent. From a single incident in 2010, it rose to 12 in 2011, then fluctuated before reaching 6 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents increased slightly from 0.23 in 2010 to 1.19 in 2022. Notably, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased significantly from 0.02% in 2010 to 0.09% in 2022, suggesting a disproportionate increase compared to state trends.
Arson data is limited, with only two reported cases in 2011 and no data available for most years. This scarcity of data makes it difficult to draw meaningful conclusions about arson trends in the city.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between population density and property crime rates. As the population density increased from 1,235 per square mile in 2010 to 1,453 in 2022, property crime rates initially rose but then stabilized. Additionally, the rise in median income from $43,126 in 2013 to $63,045 in 2022 coincided with a general decrease in property crimes, suggesting a potential inverse relationship between economic well-being and crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continued gradual decrease in overall property crime rates. Burglaries are expected to stabilize around 15-18 incidents annually, while larceny-theft may settle in the range of 45-50 cases per year. Motor vehicle thefts are projected to remain relatively low, potentially averaging 5-7 incidents annually.
In summary, Weaver has shown resilience in managing property crime rates despite significant population growth. The overall downward trend in property crimes, particularly burglaries, coupled with economic improvements, suggests a positive trajectory for community safety. However, the city's increasing share of state-level crimes in certain categories warrants continued attention and proactive measures to maintain and improve public safety in the coming years.
