Loading Content...
Property Crime Trends in Weatherby Lake, Missouri: A Study of Suburban Growth and Crime Rates
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Weatherby Lake, located in Missouri, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends. From 2011 to 2017, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, starting at 13 in 2011 and ending at 19 in 2017, representing a 46.15% increase. During this same period, the population grew from 3,492 to 4,051, a 16.01% increase, suggesting that crime growth outpaced population growth.
Burglary trends in the city showed significant volatility. In 2011, there was 1 burglary, which increased to 4 in 2016, before dropping back to 1 in 2017. This represents a 300% increase from 2011 to 2016, followed by a 75% decrease from 2016 to 2017. When considering the population, the burglary rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.29 in 2011 to 1.00 in 2016, then decreased to 0.25 in 2017. The city's contribution to state burglaries fluctuated, peaking at 0.02% in 2015 and 2016, indicating a temporary increase in the city's share of state burglaries.
Larceny theft, the most common property crime in the area, showed an overall upward trend. It increased from 10 incidents in 2011 to 17 in 2017, a 70% rise. The rate per 1,000 people grew from 2.86 in 2011 to 4.20 in 2017. The city's percentage of state larceny thefts remained relatively stable, hovering around 0.01% to 0.02%, suggesting that the increase was largely in line with state-wide trends.
Motor vehicle theft remained low and stable throughout the period, with 2 incidents in 2011, dropping to 0 in 2012 and 2013, and then stabilizing at 1 per year from 2014 to 2017. The rate per 1,000 people decreased slightly from 0.57 in 2011 to 0.25 in 2017. The city's contribution to state motor vehicle thefts decreased from 0.02% in 2011 to 0.01% in later years, indicating a relative improvement compared to state trends.
Arson data is limited, with only one reported incident in 2014, representing 0.12% of state arsons that year. This isolated incident translates to a rate of 0.28 per 1,000 people in 2014. The lack of arson in other years suggests it is not a persistent issue in the city.
There appears to be a correlation between property crime trends and population density. As the population density increased from 3,394 people per square mile in 2011 to 3,937 in 2017, total property crimes also increased. However, the relationship is not directly proportional, suggesting other factors are at play.
Applying predictive models based on the available data, we can forecast that by 2029, property crimes may continue to show a slight upward trend, potentially reaching around 25-30 incidents annually if current patterns persist. However, this prediction should be considered cautiously due to the limited data range and the potential impact of unforeseen factors.
In summary, Weatherby Lake has experienced a general increase in property crimes, particularly larceny theft, between 2011 and 2017. This trend has slightly outpaced population growth, suggesting a need for targeted crime prevention strategies. The city's contribution to state-wide property crimes remains relatively small, but the local impact of these crimes on the community may be significant given the city's size and character.
