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Property Crime Trends in Waxhaw, NC: Resilience Amid Rapid Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Waxhaw, a town in North Carolina, has witnessed significant shifts in property crime rates alongside substantial population growth over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, peaking at 293 in 2012 before declining to 166 in 2022, marking a 43.3% decrease. During this same period, the population surged from 13,250 in 2010 to 22,842 in 2022, representing a 72.4% increase.
Burglary trends in Waxhaw show a notable decline over time. In 2010, there were 29 burglaries, which peaked at 68 in 2012 before decreasing to 16 in 2022, a 44.8% reduction from 2010 levels. When adjusted for population growth, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents dropped from 2.19 in 2010 to 0.70 in 2022, indicating a significant improvement in this area of property crime. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, rising from 0.05% in 2010 to a high of 0.18% in 2019, before settling at 0.07% in 2022. This suggests that while the absolute number of burglaries decreased, the city's contribution to state totals remained relatively small but variable.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in Waxhaw, showed more volatility. From 122 incidents in 2010, it peaked at 222 in 2012 before declining to 143 in 2022, a 17.2% increase over the entire period. However, when accounting for population growth, the rate per 1,000 residents actually decreased from 9.21 in 2010 to 6.26 in 2022. The city's percentage of state larceny-thefts increased from 0.09% in 2010 to 0.12% in 2022, indicating a slight rise in the city's contribution to state totals despite the lower per capita rate.
Motor vehicle theft in Waxhaw remained relatively low but showed an increasing trend. From 4 incidents in 2010, it dropped to zero in 2014 but then rose to 7 in 2022, a 75% increase from 2010. The rate per 1,000 residents slightly decreased from 0.30 in 2010 to 0.31 in 2022, suggesting that the increase in absolute numbers was largely offset by population growth. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0.04% in 2010 to 0.05% in 2022, indicating a marginally growing contribution to state totals.
Arson cases in Waxhaw were infrequent, with most years reporting zero incidents. The highest number recorded was 3 cases in 2011, with single incidents reported in 2010, 2014, 2020, and 2021. Given the low numbers, the arson rate per 1,000 residents and the city's contribution to state totals remained minimal throughout the period.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between property crime rates and median income. As the median income rose from $84,768 in 2013 to $110,303 in 2022, the overall property crime rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 11.35 to 7.27. Additionally, there's a notable correlation between the declining percentage of white residents (from 82% in 2013 to 73% in 2022) and the overall reduction in property crime rates, although this relationship requires careful interpretation considering other socioeconomic factors.
Applying predictive models based on historical trends, it's projected that by 2029, Waxhaw may see a further 10-15% decrease in overall property crime rates, with burglary and larceny-theft likely to continue their downward trend. Motor vehicle theft rates may stabilize or slightly increase, while arson is expected to remain at very low levels.
In summary, Waxhaw has demonstrated a general improvement in property crime rates despite significant population growth. The most substantial reductions were seen in burglary, while larceny-theft and motor vehicle theft showed more complex patterns when adjusted for population. These trends, coupled with rising median incomes and changing demographics, suggest an evolving urban landscape with generally positive implications for public safety.
