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Property Crime Trends in Wathena, Kansas: A Small City's Fluctuating Security Landscape
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Wathena, located in Kansas, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. From 2010 to 2015, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, starting at 35 in 2010, peaking at 36 in 2011, and ending at 33 in 2015, representing a slight decrease of 5.71% over this period. Concurrently, the population grew from 2,267 in 2010 to 2,384 in 2015, an increase of 5.16%.
Burglary trends in the city showed significant volatility. In 2010, there were 7 burglaries, which increased to 9 in 2012, but then dropped to 4 in 2013, before rising again to 8 in 2015. The burglary rate per 1,000 people fluctuated accordingly, from 3.09 in 2010 to 3.36 in 2015. Notably, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.05% in 2010 to 0.07% in 2015, indicating a growing contribution to statewide burglary figures despite population growth.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in Wathena, showed a downward trend. From 25 incidents in 2010, it decreased to 18 in 2015, a 28% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people dropped from 11.03 in 2010 to 7.55 in 2015. However, the city's percentage of state larceny-theft remained relatively stable, moving from 0.05% in 2010 to 0.04% in 2015, suggesting that the decrease was part of a broader statewide trend.
Motor vehicle theft presented an interesting pattern. Starting with 3 incidents in 2010, it dropped to zero in 2013, but then surged to 7 in 2015. This represents a 133.33% increase over the period, with the rate per 1,000 people rising from 1.32 in 2010 to 2.94 in 2015. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts doubled from 0.06% to 0.12%, indicating a significant local increase compared to state trends.
Arson cases were rare, with only one reported incident in 2011 and 2014. The rate per 1,000 people for these years was 0.44 and 0.43 respectively. The city's share of state arsons was notably high in these years at 0.21% and 0.49%, suggesting that even single incidents had a significant impact on statewide figures due to the city's small size.
A strong correlation exists between property crime rates and population density. As the population density increased from 967 per square mile in 2010 to 1,017 in 2015, property crimes per 1,000 people decreased from 15.44 to 13.84, suggesting that increased urbanization may have contributed to improved security measures or community vigilance.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (until 2029), we anticipate a potential stabilization in overall property crime rates. Burglaries are expected to remain around 7-8 incidents annually, while larceny-theft may continue its slight downward trend to about 15-16 cases per year. Motor vehicle thefts could stabilize at 4-5 incidents annually, assuming no major changes in local economic conditions or law enforcement strategies.
In summary, Wathena has experienced diverse trends across different property crime categories from 2010 to 2015. While burglaries and motor vehicle thefts showed concerning increases, larceny-theft demonstrated a positive downward trend. The city's growing population and density appear to have influenced these trends, potentially through increased community awareness and security measures. Moving forward, maintaining focus on prevention strategies, particularly for motor vehicle thefts, will be crucial for Wathena to continue improving its property crime statistics.
