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Property Crime Trends in Watervliet, Michigan: A Decade of Fluctuations and Economic Correlations
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Watervliet, located in Michigan, has experienced fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade, with notable changes in both crime statistics and population dynamics. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 15.38%, from 26 incidents to 22, while the population grew by 0.33% from 3,046 to 3,056 residents.
The burglary trend in the city shows a significant decline over time. In 2010, there were 6 burglaries reported, which dropped to just 2 incidents in 2022, representing a 66.67% decrease. When considering population trends, the burglary rate per 1,000 people fell from 1.97 in 2010 to 0.65 in 2022. The city's contribution to state burglary statistics remained relatively low, hovering around 0.01% throughout most of the period, with a slight increase to 0.02% in 2021 before returning to 0.01% in 2022. This downward trend in burglaries suggests improved security measures or changing criminal patterns within the community.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, also showed a decreasing trend. In 2010, there were 19 larceny-theft incidents, which reduced to 16 in 2022, marking a 15.79% decrease. The rate per 1,000 people decreased from 6.24 in 2010 to 5.24 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft statistics remained consistent at around 0.02% throughout the period, with a peak of 0.04% in 2012. This steady percentage, despite population growth, indicates that larceny-theft rates in the city have generally kept pace with state-wide trends.
Motor vehicle theft trends have been more variable. In 2010, there was 1 reported incident, which increased to 4 in 2022, representing a 300% increase. The rate per 1,000 people rose from 0.33 in 2010 to 1.31 in 2022. The city's contribution to state motor vehicle theft statistics fluctuated, reaching 0.03% in 2020 and 2022, up from 0% in 2014. This increase, particularly in recent years, may warrant attention from local law enforcement.
Arson incidents in Watervliet have been consistently low, with zero reported cases throughout the entire period from 2010 to 2022. This absence of arson cases suggests effective fire prevention measures or a lack of this specific criminal activity in the area.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and other city metrics reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As median income increased from $38,317 in 2013 to $48,082 in 2022, overall property crime incidents decreased. This suggests that improved economic conditions may contribute to reduced property crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a potential slight increase in overall property crimes, primarily driven by the recent uptick in motor vehicle thefts. The model suggests that by 2029, the city might experience around 25-30 property crime incidents annually, assuming current trends and interventions remain consistent.
In summary, Watervliet has shown a general improvement in property crime rates over the past decade, particularly in burglary and larceny-theft. However, the recent increase in motor vehicle thefts presents a new challenge. The inverse relationship between rising median income and declining property crime rates suggests that continued economic growth could further contribute to crime reduction. As the city moves forward, focusing on strategies to address motor vehicle theft while maintaining the positive trends in other areas will be crucial for ensuring community safety and well-being.
