Loading Content...
Property Crime Trends in Warsaw, Illinois: A Study of Declining Rates Amid Population Decrease
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Warsaw, located in Illinois, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends over recent years. From 2012 to 2016, the total number of property crimes fluctuated significantly, starting at 32 in 2012, dropping to 2 in 2014, then rising to 14 in 2016. This represents a 56.25% decrease over the period. During the same timeframe, the population decreased from 1,658 in 2012 to 1,505 in 2016, a 9.23% reduction.
Burglary rates in the city showed notable variability. In 2012, there were 3 burglaries, which decreased to 2 in 2014, then increased to 6 in 2015 before dropping back to 3 in 2016. When adjusted for population, this translates to 1.81 burglaries per 1,000 people in 2012, increasing to 3.82 per 1,000 in 2015, and then decreasing to 1.99 per 1,000 in 2016. The city's share of state burglaries remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 0.01% and 0.02% during this period. This suggests that while burglary rates varied locally, they generally aligned with statewide trends.
Larceny-theft showed a dramatic decline over the years. From 28 incidents in 2012, it dropped to 0 in 2014, then slightly increased to 2 in 2015 and 11 in 2016. Per 1,000 residents, this represents a decrease from 16.89 in 2012 to 7.31 in 2016. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft statistics decreased from 0.02% in 2012 to 0.01% in 2016, indicating a faster decline in larceny-theft compared to the state average.
Motor vehicle theft in the city experienced significant fluctuations. There was 1 incident in 2012, none in 2014, a spike to 4 in 2015, and then back to 0 in 2016. This translates to rates per 1,000 residents of 0.60 in 2012, peaking at 2.55 in 2015, and then dropping to 0 in 2016. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts varied from 0% to 0.03%, with the peak coinciding with the 2015 spike.
Arson cases were rare, with only one reported incident in 2016. This single case, however, represented 0.07% of state arson cases that year, a disproportionately high figure given the city's small population. The rate per 1,000 residents was 0.66 in 2016.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As median income increased from $41,388 in 2013 to $49,625 in 2016, total property crimes decreased from 32 in 2012 to 14 in 2016. The percentage of owner-occupied housing remained relatively stable around 82-83% during this period, which may have contributed to the overall decrease in property crimes.
Applying predictive models based on the available data, it's projected that property crime rates in Warsaw may continue to fluctuate but with a slight downward trend over the next seven years (up to 2029, which is five years from now). This prediction assumes that the correlations between economic factors and crime rates continue to hold and that there are no significant changes in local law enforcement strategies or socioeconomic conditions.
In summary, Warsaw has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates, with an overall decreasing trend from 2012 to 2016. The most significant changes were seen in larceny-theft and motor vehicle theft, while burglary rates remained relatively stable. The city's contribution to state crime statistics remained small, reflecting its size. The inverse correlation between rising median income and declining property crime rates suggests that economic improvements may have played a role in reducing criminal activity. As Warsaw moves forward, continued monitoring of these trends will be crucial for maintaining and improving public safety.
