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Property Crime Trends in Warrensville Heights: Population Density's Impact on Crime Rates
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Warrensville Heights, a city in Ohio, has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates over the years, set against a backdrop of relatively stable population figures. From 2010 to 2012, the total number of property crimes increased from 452 to 564 before declining to 446, representing a slight overall decrease of 1.33% during this period. Concurrently, the population saw a minor decrease of 1.44%, from 13,866 in 2010 to 13,666 in 2022.
Burglary trends in the city show significant volatility. In 2010, there were 223 burglaries, which increased to 264 in 2011 before dropping sharply to 174 in 2012. This represents a 21.97% decrease from 2010 to 2012. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 16.08 in 2010 to 12.75 in 2012. Notably, the city's share of state burglaries increased slightly from 0.29% in 2010 to 0.31% in 2012, indicating that while local burglaries decreased, they did not fall as rapidly as the state average.
Larceny-theft incidents showed an upward trend, rising from 176 cases in 2010 to 188 in 2012, an increase of 6.82%. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 12.69 in 2010 to 13.78 in 2012. The city's percentage of state larceny-theft cases grew from 0.12% to 0.16% during this period, suggesting a faster increase in larceny-theft compared to the state average.
Motor vehicle theft exhibited a substantial increase, rising from 53 cases in 2010 to 84 in 2012, a 58.49% surge. The rate per 1,000 residents jumped from 3.82 in 2010 to 6.16 in 2012. Most strikingly, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts more than doubled from 0.32% to 0.71%, indicating a much faster increase in this crime category compared to the state average.
Arson cases remained relatively stable, with 4 incidents in 2010 and 3 in both 2011 and 2012. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased slightly from 0.29 in 2010 to 0.22 in 2012. The city's share of state arson cases decreased marginally from 0.15% to 0.12%, suggesting a slight improvement relative to the state average.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As median income increased from $37,168 in 2019 to $39,406 in 2022, overall property crime rates showed a decreasing trend. Additionally, there's a noticeable correlation between the percentage of owner-occupied housing and crime rates. As the percentage of owner-occupied housing decreased from 43% in 2013 to 39% in 2022, certain property crimes, particularly motor vehicle theft, showed an increase.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next seven years (up to 2029), we can expect the following: Burglaries are likely to continue their downward trend, potentially decreasing by another 15-20% by 2029. Larceny-theft incidents may stabilize or show a slight increase, possibly rising by 5-10% by 2029. Motor vehicle thefts, if the trend continues, could see a significant increase, potentially rising by 30-40% by 2029. Arson cases are expected to remain relatively stable, with minor fluctuations.
In summary, Warrensville Heights has shown a mixed picture of property crime trends. While burglaries have decreased, larceny-theft and especially motor vehicle theft have increased. The city's share of state crime in these categories has generally increased, suggesting that property crime trends in Warrensville Heights are outpacing state averages. The inverse relationship between median income and crime rates, along with the correlation between owner-occupied housing and crime, highlight the potential impact of economic factors on property crime. As the city moves forward, addressing motor vehicle theft and maintaining the downward trend in burglaries should be key priorities in property crime prevention strategies.
