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Property Crime Trends in Wapakoneta, Ohio: A Mixed Decade of Change
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Wapakoneta, Ohio, a small city with a rich history, has experienced notable changes in its property crime landscape over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, with a peak of 224 incidents in 2012 and a low of 106 in 2021. Overall, property crimes decreased by 24.1% during this period, from 137 in 2010 to 170 in 2022. This reduction occurred against a backdrop of modest population growth, with the city's population increasing by 0.58% from 14,485 in 2010 to 14,569 in 2022.
Burglary trends in the city have shown significant variability. The highest number of burglaries was recorded in 2014 with 31 incidents, while the lowest was 6 in 2021. The burglary rate per 1,000 people decreased from 1.45 in 2010 to 0.62 in 2022, a 57.2% reduction. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, peaking at 0.07% in 2017 and dropping to 0.02% in 2013. This overall decline in burglaries, despite population growth, suggests improved home security measures or more effective law enforcement strategies.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, showed less dramatic changes. The highest number of larceny-thefts was 193 in 2012, while the lowest was 95 in 2020. The rate per 1,000 people decreased slightly from 7.94 in 2010 to 7.76 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny-thefts increased from 0.08% in 2010 to 0.15% in 2022, indicating a growing share of this crime type relative to the state. This trend suggests that while overall crime rates have decreased, larceny-theft remains a persistent issue.
Motor vehicle theft in the city remained relatively low throughout the period. The highest number of incidents was 5 in both 2011 and 2018, while the lowest was 1 in 2010. The rate per 1,000 people increased slightly from 0.07 in 2010 to 0.27 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated between 0.01% and 0.04%, with no clear trend. These figures suggest that motor vehicle theft is not a major concern for the city, although there has been a slight increase over time.
Arson incidents were rare in the city, with only three reported cases over the 13-year period (2011, 2015, and 2017). The rate per 1,000 people for these years was consistently low at 0.07. The city's share of state arsons ranged from 0.04% to 0.08% in the years with reported incidents. The scarcity of arson cases indicates that it is not a significant issue for the community.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As median income increased from $56,424 in 2013 to $63,702 in 2022, overall property crime rates tended to decrease. However, this correlation is not perfect, as evidenced by the recent uptick in property crimes in 2022 despite rising incomes.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a slight increase in overall property crimes. Based on recent trends, larceny-theft is expected to remain the dominant form of property crime, potentially reaching around 170-180 incidents annually by 2029. Burglaries may stabilize at around 10-15 incidents per year, while motor vehicle thefts could see a small increase to 5-6 annual incidents. Arson is predicted to remain rare, with possibly one incident every few years.
In conclusion, Wapakoneta has experienced an overall decrease in property crimes from 2010 to 2022, despite a growing population. Larceny-theft remains the most prevalent property crime, while burglaries have significantly decreased. Motor vehicle theft and arson incidents are relatively low. The inverse relationship between rising median incomes and decreasing crime rates suggests that economic improvements may contribute to crime reduction. However, the recent uptick in property crimes in 2022 warrants continued vigilance. As Wapakoneta moves forward, maintaining focus on economic development and community-based crime prevention strategies will be crucial in managing and potentially further reducing property crime rates.
