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Property Crime Trends in Walsenburg, Colorado: Rising Concerns Amid Population Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Walsenburg, a city in Colorado, has experienced a notable increase in property crime rates despite a declining population from 2011 to 2016. The total number of property crimes rose by 125.29%, from 87 to 196 incidents, while the city's population decreased by 4.23%, from 3,335 to 3,195 residents. This contrasting trend presents a unique challenge for the community and law enforcement.
Burglary incidents in Walsenburg showed a substantial increase over the analyzed period. From 2011 to 2016, burglary cases rose from 27 to 76, marking a 181.48% increase. The burglary rate per 1,000 people grew from 8.10 in 2011 to 23.79 in 2016, indicating a significant rise relative to the population. Furthermore, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.13% in 2011 to 0.41% in 2016, suggesting a growing concentration of burglary incidents compared to the state average.
Larceny theft also demonstrated an upward trend, though less pronounced than burglary. Incidents increased from 60 in 2011 to 107 in 2016, a 78.33% rise. The rate per 1,000 people grew from 17.99 to 33.49 over the same period. The city's percentage of state larceny thefts increased from 0.08% to 0.12%, indicating a modest growth in the city's contribution to state-wide larceny theft figures.
Motor vehicle theft emerged as a new concern in Walsenburg, with incidents rising from zero reported cases in 2011 to 13 in 2016. This change resulted in a rate of 4.07 thefts per 1,000 people by 2016. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0% to 0.08%, indicating a new emergence of this crime type in the local area.
Arson cases in the city showed fluctuation but an overall increase. From no reported cases in 2011, arson incidents peaked at 4 in 2015 before settling at 3 in 2016. The rate per 1,000 people reached 0.94 in 2016. The city's contribution to state arson cases grew from 0% in 2011 to 0.45% in 2016, indicating a disproportionate increase compared to state trends.
A strong correlation is observed between the rise in property crimes and the decline in median income. As the median income fell from $26,230 in 2013 to $22,083 in 2016, total property crimes increased from 92 to 196. This inverse relationship suggests that economic challenges may be contributing to the rise in property crimes.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends, a continued increase in overall property crime rates is anticipated. By 2024, the total number of property crimes is projected to reach approximately 275 incidents annually, assuming current trends persist without significant interventions.
The analysis of Walsenburg's property crime trends reveals a concerning trajectory of increasing criminal activity against a backdrop of population decline and economic challenges. The most significant findings include the dramatic rise in burglaries, the emergence of motor vehicle thefts, and the strong inverse correlation between property crimes and median income. These trends suggest a need for targeted interventions to address the root causes of property crimes, particularly in light of the economic pressures facing the community.
