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Property Crime Trends in Walnut Grove: A Small Missouri City's Decade of Fluctuations
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Walnut Grove, Missouri, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. Over the period from 2010 to 2021, the city experienced fluctuations in total property crimes, ranging from a low of 0 incidents in 2018 to a high of 15 in 2019. The overall trend shows a slight increase, with the total number of property crimes rising from 3 in 2010 to 5 in 2021, representing a 66.7% increase. During this same period, the population decreased from 1,438 in 2010 to 1,318 in 2021, a 8.3% decline.
Burglary trends in the city have been variable. The highest number of burglaries occurred in 2019 with 8 incidents, while several years (2012, 2014, and 2018) reported no burglaries. When considering the population, the burglary rate per 1,000 people peaked in 2019 at 5.6 incidents per 1,000 residents. The percentage of state burglaries attributable to the city has generally remained low, with the highest contribution of 0.05% in 2019. This suggests that while burglary has been a concern at times, it has not consistently been a major issue relative to the state's overall burglary rates.
Larceny-theft in the city has shown a similar pattern of fluctuation. The highest number of larceny-thefts was recorded in 2015 with 7 incidents, while 2014, 2017, and 2018 saw no reported cases. The larceny-theft rate per 1,000 people reached its peak in 2015 at 4.7 incidents per 1,000 residents. The city's contribution to the state's larceny-theft statistics has remained minimal, never exceeding 0.01% of the state total. This indicates that larceny-theft, while present, has not been a significant concern relative to state-wide statistics.
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Motor vehicle theft in the city has been relatively rare. The highest number of incidents was 1, occurring in 2010, 2014, 2015, 2017, and 2021. Several years reported no motor vehicle thefts. The rate per 1,000 people has never exceeded 0.76 incidents per 1,000 residents (in 2021). The city's contribution to the state's motor vehicle theft statistics has been minimal, with the highest percentage being 0.01% in several years. This suggests that motor vehicle theft is not a significant issue in the city compared to other areas in the state.
Arson incidents have been non-existent in the city throughout the entire period from 2010 to 2021, with no reported cases. Consequently, there has been no contribution to the state's arson statistics, indicating that arson is not a concern for this community.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a weak inverse relationship between property crime and population density. As the population density decreased from 2,316 per square mile in 2010 to 2,123 per square mile in 2021, property crimes showed a slight overall increase. However, this correlation is not strong enough to draw definitive conclusions.
Applying predictive models based on the available data, it's challenging to forecast with high confidence due to the significant year-to-year variations. However, if we extrapolate the general trend, we might expect property crimes to remain relatively stable or show a slight increase over the next five years (up to 2029). The forecast suggests that the total number of property crimes could range between 4 to 7 incidents annually by 2029, assuming no significant changes in local conditions or law enforcement strategies.
In summary, Walnut Grove has experienced fluctuating property crime rates over the past decade, with burglary and larceny-theft being the most prevalent types of property crimes. Despite some years with higher incidents, the overall contribution to state crime statistics remains low. The city's declining population alongside slightly increasing property crime rates suggests a need for continued vigilance in crime prevention efforts.
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