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Property Crime Trends in Walnut: A Decade of Fluctuations
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Walnut, located in California, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, with a notable decrease from 447 in 2010 to 435 in 2022, representing a 2.68% reduction. During this same period, the population experienced a slight decline, dropping from 30,917 in 2010 to 29,709 in 2022, a decrease of 3.91%.
Burglary rates in the city have shown significant volatility over the years. In 2010, there were 159 burglaries, which decreased to 152 by 2022. However, this overall decrease masks substantial fluctuations, with a peak of 285 burglaries in 2016. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents increased from 5.14 in 2010 to 5.12 in 2022, despite the slight overall decrease in raw numbers. Notably, the city's contribution to state burglary statistics rose from 0.09% in 2010 to 0.13% in 2022, indicating that while burglaries decreased locally, they decreased at a slower rate compared to the state average.
Larceny-theft trends show a slight decrease over the 12-year period. In 2010, there were 248 reported cases, which declined to 240 in 2022, a 3.23% decrease. However, when accounting for population changes, the rate per 1,000 residents actually increased marginally from 8.02 in 2010 to 8.08 in 2022. The city's share of state larceny-theft incidents remained relatively stable, moving from 0.05% in 2010 to 0.05% in 2022, suggesting that local trends closely mirrored state-wide patterns.
Motor vehicle theft in the city showed a concerning upward trend. The number of incidents increased from 40 in 2010 to 43 in 2022, a 7.5% rise. When adjusted for population changes, this translates to an increase from 1.29 thefts per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 1.45 in 2022. The city's contribution to state motor vehicle theft statistics remained stable at 0.03% throughout this period, indicating that the local increase was consistent with state-wide trends.
Arson cases in the city have been sporadic and relatively low in number. In 2010, there were 2 reported cases, and by 2020 (the last year with available data), there were 4 cases. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0.06 in 2010 to 0.13 in 2020. The city's share of state arson cases fluctuated, peaking at 0.1% in 2012 but dropping to 0.04% by 2020, suggesting that local arson trends did not consistently align with state patterns.
Examining correlations between property crime and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a moderate negative correlation between median income and property crime rates. As the median income increased from $98,369 in 2013 to $102,313 in 2022, overall property crime rates tended to decrease. Additionally, there's a slight positive correlation between population density and property crime rates, with both showing general decreases over time.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential continuation of the overall decreasing trend in total property crimes, albeit with some fluctuations. Burglary rates are projected to stabilize, while larceny-theft may continue its slight downward trend. Motor vehicle theft, however, is predicted to potentially increase if current trends persist.
In summary, Walnut has experienced a complex evolution in its property crime landscape over the past decade. While overall property crime has decreased slightly, individual categories show varying trends. The city's relative contribution to state crime statistics has remained fairly stable, suggesting that local trends generally align with broader state patterns. The relationship between economic factors and crime rates highlights the potential impact of socioeconomic conditions on public safety, underscoring the importance of holistic approaches to crime prevention and community development.
