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Property Crime Trends in Wallace, NC: A Decade of Resilience
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Wallace, a small town in North Carolina, has experienced notable shifts in property crime rates over the past decade. From 2011 to 2022, total property crimes fluctuated, with a peak of 229 incidents in 2014 and a low of 144 in 2021, before rising slightly to 167 in 2022. This represents a 8.2% decrease in property crimes from 2011 to 2022. During this same period, the population decreased from 6,501 in 2011 to 5,648 in 2022, a 13.1% reduction.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a significant downward trend. In 2011, there were 38 burglaries, which increased to 56 in 2014 before declining sharply to 25 in 2022. This represents a 34.2% decrease from 2011 to 2022. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 5.85 in 2011 to 4.43 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.07% in 2011 to 0.10% in 2022, suggesting that while local burglaries decreased, they did not fall as rapidly as the state average.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, showed fluctuations over the years. From 138 incidents in 2011, it peaked at 165 in 2014 before declining to 135 in 2022. This represents a slight 2.2% decrease over the period. The larceny-theft rate per 1,000 residents increased from 21.23 in 2011 to 23.90 in 2022, indicating that while the absolute number of thefts decreased slightly, the rate increased due to the population decline. The city's share of state larceny-thefts remained relatively stable, increasing slightly from 0.10% in 2011 to 0.11% in 2022.
Motor vehicle theft in the city showed an overall increasing trend. From 6 incidents in 2011, it rose to 13 in 2012, then fluctuated before settling at 7 in 2022, representing a 16.7% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0.92 in 2011 to 1.24 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased slightly from 0.06% in 2011 to 0.05% in 2022, suggesting that while local rates increased, they did not grow as rapidly as the state average.
Arson cases in the city were sporadic and relatively rare. There was 1 case in 2011, 7 cases in 2014, and 2 cases in 2015, with no reported cases in other years. Due to the low numbers, it's difficult to establish a meaningful trend or rate per 1,000 residents. The city's share of state arsons fluctuated significantly, from 0.11% in 2011 to 0.78% in 2014, before dropping to 0% in recent years.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between property crime rates and population density. As the population density decreased from 2,035 per square mile in 2011 to 1,768 in 2022, property crimes per capita increased slightly. This suggests that the reduction in population may have had some impact on crime rates.
Applying predictive models based on the available data, it's projected that by 2029, property crime rates in Wallace may continue to fluctuate but are likely to remain relatively stable. The total number of property crimes is expected to be around 160-170 incidents annually, with larceny-theft continuing to be the predominant type of property crime.
In summary, Wallace has experienced an overall decrease in property crimes from 2011 to 2022, despite fluctuations in specific crime categories. The most significant changes were the decrease in burglaries and the slight increase in motor vehicle thefts. These trends, coupled with the declining population, have resulted in slightly higher per capita crime rates for some categories. The city's share of state property crimes has remained relatively stable, indicating that local trends generally align with broader state patterns.
