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Property Crime Trends in Wake Forest: A Decade of Change Amid Rapid Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Wake Forest, a town in North Carolina, has experienced significant population growth alongside fluctuating property crime rates over the past decade. From 2011 to 2022, the total number of property crimes in Wake Forest decreased by 26.1%, from 725 to 536 incidents. During this same period, the population grew substantially by 59.5%, from 40,164 to 64,052 residents.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a notable decline over time. In 2011, there were 94 burglaries, which decreased to 53 by 2022, representing a 43.6% reduction. When adjusted for population growth, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents fell from 2.34 in 2011 to 0.83 in 2022, a 64.5% decrease. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, peaking at 0.31% in 2015 before settling at 0.22% in 2022. This downward trend in burglaries, despite population growth, suggests improved security measures or changing criminal patterns in the area.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in Wake Forest, showed more volatility. The number of incidents decreased from 618 in 2011 to 451 in 2022, a 27% reduction. However, when accounting for population growth, the rate per 1,000 residents dropped more significantly, from 15.39 in 2011 to 7.04 in 2022, a 54.3% decrease. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft cases fell from 0.45% in 2011 to 0.38% in 2022, with a peak of 0.93% in 2016. This overall decline in larceny-theft rates, despite occasional spikes, indicates a general improvement in property security or law enforcement effectiveness.
Motor vehicle theft in the city showed an upward trend, increasing from 13 incidents in 2011 to 32 in 2022, a 146.2% rise. However, when adjusted for population growth, the rate per 1,000 residents increased more modestly from 0.32 to 0.50, a 56.3% increase. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts rose from 0.13% in 2011 to 0.22% in 2022. This increase, especially in recent years, may suggest a need for targeted efforts to address this specific type of property crime.
Arson cases in Wake Forest remained relatively low but showed some fluctuation. The number of incidents increased from 1 in 2011 to 3 in 2022. When adjusted for population, the rate per 1,000 residents went from 0.02 in 2011 to 0.05 in 2022. The city's contribution to state arson cases increased from 0.11% in 2011 to 0.34% in 2022. While the absolute numbers are small, the increase in the city's share of state arson cases may warrant attention from local authorities.
A strong correlation exists between the city's population density and property crime rates. As population density increased from 2,057 per square mile in 2011 to 3,281 in 2022, overall property crime rates per 1,000 residents decreased. This suggests that the growing urbanization of Wake Forest has not led to a proportional increase in property crimes.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential continuation of the overall downward trend in property crime rates per capita. However, motor vehicle thefts may continue to rise if current trends persist. The city should remain vigilant and adapt its crime prevention strategies accordingly.
In conclusion, Wake Forest has demonstrated resilience in managing property crime rates despite rapid population growth. The significant decreases in burglary and larceny-theft rates per capita are particularly noteworthy. However, the rise in motor vehicle thefts and the fluctuating arson rates highlight areas that may require focused attention. As the city continues to grow, maintaining and adapting effective crime prevention strategies will be crucial for sustaining the overall positive trends in property crime management.
