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Property Crime Trends in Vernon Hills: Suburban Safety Amidst Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Vernon Hills, located in Illinois, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, with a notable decrease from 673 incidents in 2010 to 338 in 2022, representing a 49.8% reduction. During this same period, the population grew from 22,714 in 2010 to 24,942 in 2022, a 9.8% increase.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a significant downward trend. In 2010, there were 53 burglaries, which decreased to 27 by 2022, a 49.1% reduction. When adjusted for population growth, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents fell from 2.33 in 2010 to 1.08 in 2022. Interestingly, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.1% in 2010 to 0.16% in 2022, suggesting that while local burglaries decreased, they did so at a slower rate compared to the state average.
Larceny theft, the most common property crime in the area, also saw a substantial decrease. In 2010, there were 617 larceny thefts, which dropped to 296 in 2022, a 52% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 27.16 in 2010 to 11.87 in 2022. The city's share of state larceny thefts decreased slightly from 0.37% to 0.29% over this period, indicating that the local reduction outpaced the state average.
Motor vehicle theft trends showed more volatility. In 2010, there were only 3 reported cases, which increased to 15 in 2022, a 400% increase. However, this still represents a low rate of 0.60 thefts per 1,000 residents in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0.01% to 0.05%, suggesting a faster increase compared to the state average.
Arson cases remained relatively low throughout the period, with 0 cases in 2010 and 1 case in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents in 2022 was 0.04. The city's share of state arsons increased from 0% to 0.15%, indicating a slight uptick relative to state trends.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As the median income increased from $112,855 in 2013 to $124,934 in 2022, property crimes decreased. Additionally, there seems to be a correlation between the changing racial demographics and crime rates. As the Asian population increased from 21% in 2013 to 26% in 2022, and the white population decreased from 65% to 59%, property crime rates generally declined.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next seven years (up to 2029), we can expect the overall downward trend to continue, albeit at a slower rate. Burglaries and larceny thefts are likely to see further reductions, while motor vehicle thefts may stabilize or slightly increase. Arson cases are expected to remain low but may fluctuate slightly year to year.
In summary, Vernon Hills has experienced a significant overall reduction in property crimes from 2010 to 2022, despite population growth. This trend, coupled with rising median incomes and changing demographics, suggests an improving safety profile for the community. However, the slight increases in motor vehicle thefts and the city's growing share of state crime in certain categories warrant continued vigilance and targeted prevention strategies.
