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Property Crime Trends in Vance, Alabama: A Decade of Growth and Declining Crime Rates
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Vance, Alabama, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2018, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, starting at 43 in 2010 and decreasing to 19 in 2018, representing a 55.8% reduction. During this same period, the population grew from 4,303 in 2010 to 5,041 in 2018, an increase of 17.2%.
Burglary rates in the city have shown significant volatility. In 2010, there were 18 burglaries, which decreased to 4 in 2018, a 77.8% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate dropped from 4.18 per 1,000 people in 2010 to 0.79 per 1,000 in 2018. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, peaking at 0.13% in 2016 before dropping to 0.02% in 2018. This dramatic reduction suggests improved home security measures or increased law enforcement effectiveness in preventing burglaries.
Larceny-theft incidents have also seen a downward trend. In 2010, there were 22 reported cases, which decreased to 13 in 2018, a 40.9% reduction. The larceny-theft rate per 1,000 people decreased from 5.11 in 2010 to 2.58 in 2018. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft remained relatively stable, hovering around 0.03% throughout most of the period, indicating that the local trend aligns with broader state patterns.
Motor vehicle theft showed some fluctuation but ultimately decreased. From 3 incidents in 2010, it dropped to 2 in 2018, a 33.3% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people decreased from 0.70 in 2010 to 0.40 in 2018. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts varied, reaching a high of 0.07% in 2011 and 2015 before settling at 0.02% in 2018. This suggests that while motor vehicle theft remains a concern, it has become less prevalent in recent years.
Examining correlations between property crime and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the population density increased from 422 per square mile in 2010 to 495 in 2018, property crime rates generally decreased. This suggests that increased urbanization in the area may have led to improved security measures or community vigilance. Additionally, the median income rose from $55,260 in 2013 to $62,265 in 2018, coinciding with the overall decrease in property crimes. This correlation might indicate that improved economic conditions contribute to reduced property crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued decline in overall property crime rates. Based on the historical data and current trends, we can project that by 2029, the total number of property crimes could potentially decrease by another 20-30% from the 2018 levels, assuming current socioeconomic conditions and law enforcement strategies remain consistent.
In summary, Vance has experienced a significant reduction in property crimes over the observed period, particularly in burglaries and larceny-theft. This positive trend, coupled with population growth and increasing median income, paints a picture of a community that has made strides in improving public safety and economic conditions. As the city continues to grow and evolve, maintaining these positive trends will be crucial for ensuring the long-term safety and prosperity of its residents.
