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Property Crime Trends in Van Buren, Missouri: A Decade of Fluctuation and Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Van Buren, Missouri, a small community with a population of 1,178 in 2022, has experienced fluctuating property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes varied significantly, peaking at 25 incidents in 2016 and dropping to just 1 incident in 2020. This represents an overall decrease of 50% in property crimes from 2010 to 2022. During the same period, the population grew by 36.5%, from 863 in 2010 to 1,178 in 2022.
Burglary trends in the city have shown considerable variation. In 2010, there were 5 burglaries, which decreased to zero in 2011 and 2012. The number then fluctuated, reaching a peak of 9 in 2016 before declining to zero again in 2022. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 people decreased from 5.79 in 2010 to 0 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries also fluctuated, peaking at 0.04% in 2016 and dropping to 0% in 2022. This trend suggests an overall improvement in burglary prevention within the community.
Larceny theft incidents have shown a general downward trend. In 2010, there were 3 larceny thefts, which increased to 18 in 2011 before gradually declining to 3 in 2022. The larceny theft rate per 1,000 people decreased from 3.48 in 2010 to 2.55 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny thefts remained relatively low, peaking at 0.02% in 2014 and 2016, and dropping to 0% in 2022. This decline in larceny thefts could indicate improved community vigilance or more effective law enforcement strategies.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has been sporadic. There were no reported incidents in 2010, 2011, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2018, and 2020. The highest number of motor vehicle thefts was 2, occurring in 2017 and 2019. The rate per 1,000 people reached a maximum of 1.46 in 2017. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts remained minimal, never exceeding 0.01%. These low numbers suggest that motor vehicle theft is not a significant concern for the community.
Arson incidents in Van Buren have been rare. Only one case was reported in 2011, representing 0.11% of state arsons that year. For all other years in the dataset, there were no reported arson cases. This indicates that arson is not a prevalent issue in the community.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and socioeconomic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the population density increased from 431 per square mile in 2010 to 589 in 2022, property crimes initially rose but then declined sharply. The median income showed significant fluctuations, peaking at $45,333 in 2017 before dropping to $25,937 in 2022. During this period, property crimes generally decreased, suggesting a potential inverse relationship between income levels and property crime rates. Home ownership rates declined from 72% in 2013 to 48% in 2022, which coincided with an overall decrease in property crimes, contrary to what might be expected.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential stabilization or slight decrease in overall property crime rates. Based on the recent trends, burglaries and larceny thefts are likely to remain at low levels, potentially averaging 2-3 incidents per year. Motor vehicle thefts may continue to be sporadic, with 0-1 incidents annually. Arson is predicted to remain a rare occurrence, with possibly no incidents in the forecast period.
In summary, Van Buren has experienced a general decline in property crimes over the past decade, despite population growth. The most significant reductions were seen in burglaries and larceny thefts, while motor vehicle theft and arson have remained consistently low. These trends, coupled with changing socioeconomic factors, paint a picture of a small community that has made strides in improving public safety and reducing property crime rates.
