Motor vehicle theft showed significant variation. From 1 incident in 2016, it spiked to 5 in 2017, before returning to 1 in 2020 and dropping to 0 in 2021. The rate per 1,000 people went from 0.82 in 2016 to 4.12 in 2017, then to 0 in 2021. The city's percentage of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0.02% in 2016 to 0.09% in 2017, before falling to 0% in 2021. This volatility suggests that motor vehicle theft is not a persistent problem but can occur in isolated spikes.

Arson incidents remained at 0 throughout the reported years, indicating that this particular crime is not a significant concern for the community.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between population density and property crime rates. As population density increased from 1,727 per square mile in 2016 to 1,874 in 2021, total property crimes decreased from 12 to 8. Additionally, there's a potential correlation between rising median income and decreasing property crime. The median income rose from $51,940 in 2016 to $60,367 in 2021, coinciding with the drop in property crimes.

Applying predictive models based on these trends, it's projected that by 2029, property crime rates in Valley Falls may continue to decrease slightly. The total number of property crimes could potentially drop to around 5-6 incidents annually, assuming consistent population growth and economic improvement.

In summary, Valley Falls has demonstrated a generally positive trend in property crime reduction despite population growth. The most significant improvements were seen in larceny-theft and motor vehicle theft, while burglary rates remained relatively stable. These trends, coupled with increasing median income and population density, suggest that the city is experiencing positive community development that may be contributing to a safer environment for its residents.