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Property Crime Trends in Union, Missouri: A Decade of Change Amidst Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Union, Missouri, a small urban area covering 9.01 square miles, has experienced significant changes in property crime rates and population growth over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, ultimately decreasing by 2.92% from 480 to 466 incidents. During the same period, the population grew by 21.5%, from 14,416 to 17,516 residents, indicating a decrease in the per capita crime rate despite population growth.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a notable downward trend. In 2010, there were 51 burglaries, which decreased to 38 in 2022, representing a 25.5% reduction. When adjusted for population growth, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents fell from 3.54 in 2010 to 2.17 in 2022, a 38.7% decrease. The city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.16% in 2010 to 0.29% in 2022, suggesting that while local rates improved, they did not keep pace with statewide reductions. This trend indicates improving local security measures or changing criminal patterns within the community.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the area, showed fluctuations but an overall decrease. In 2010, there were 417 incidents, which reduced to 372 in 2022, a 10.8% decrease. However, when accounting for population growth, the rate per 1,000 residents decreased more significantly from 28.93 to 21.24, a 26.6% reduction. The city's proportion of state larceny-thefts increased from 0.37% to 0.48% over this period, suggesting that while local improvements were made, they were less pronounced than statewide trends. This could indicate a need for targeted prevention strategies focusing on petty theft and shoplifting.
Motor vehicle theft trends present a concerning picture. Incidents rose from 12 in 2010 to 56 in 2022, a substantial 366.7% increase. Even when adjusted for population growth, the rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0.83 to 3.20, a 285.5% rise. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts grew from 0.09% to 0.23%, indicating that this issue has become more pronounced locally compared to state averages. This trend suggests a need for increased focus on vehicle security and targeted law enforcement efforts.
Arson cases in the city have fluctuated but show an overall increase. From 2 incidents in 2010 to 3 in 2022, there was a 50% rise. Adjusted for population, the rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0.14 to 0.17, a 21.4% rise. The city's proportion of state arsons grew from 0.19% to 0.49%, indicating that arson has become a relatively larger issue locally compared to state trends. While the numbers are small, the increase warrants attention from local fire and law enforcement agencies.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong relationship between the city's changing demographics and property crime trends. As the white population percentage decreased from 95% in 2013 to 90% in 2022, property crimes showed some fluctuation but an overall decrease. This suggests that increasing diversity in the city may be associated with changing crime patterns. Additionally, the rise in median income from $53,462 in 2013 to $61,607 in 2022 correlates with the overall decrease in property crimes, potentially indicating that improved economic conditions may contribute to reduced criminal activity.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continued overall decrease in property crimes, with the exception of motor vehicle thefts. Burglaries and larceny-thefts are expected to continue their downward trend, potentially reaching around 30 and 330 incidents respectively by 2029. However, motor vehicle thefts may continue to rise, potentially reaching around 80 incidents by 2029 if current trends persist. Arson cases are expected to remain low but variable, averaging between 2-4 incidents annually.
In summary, Union has shown resilience in the face of population growth, with overall property crime rates decreasing despite specific challenges in motor vehicle theft and arson. The city's changing demographics and improving economic conditions appear to be influential factors in these trends. Moving forward, targeted strategies to address vehicle theft and continued community engagement will be crucial in maintaining and improving public safety in this evolving urban landscape.
