Motor vehicle theft in the city has shown some fluctuation. There were 2 incidents in 2012, which decreased to 1 in 2015, but then increased to 3 in 2021. This represents a 50% increase from 2012 to 2021. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0.66 in 2012 to 1.14 in 2021. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts rose from 0.02% in 2012 to 0.03% in 2021, indicating a growing concern relative to state trends.

Arson incidents have remained consistently at zero from 2012 to 2021, with no reported cases throughout this period. This stability is positive for the city, especially considering the fluctuations in other property crime categories.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between population density and burglary rates. As population density decreased from 843 per square mile in 2012 to 737 in 2021, burglary rates also declined significantly. However, larceny-theft and motor vehicle theft showed an increase despite the population decline, suggesting other factors may be influencing these crime types.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can anticipate a continued decrease in burglaries, potentially reaching near-zero levels. Larceny-theft is likely to stabilize or slightly increase, while motor vehicle theft may continue its upward trend unless intervention measures are implemented.

In summary, Twin City has shown mixed results in property crime trends over the past decade. The significant reduction in burglaries is a positive development, potentially reflecting improved home security measures or effective law enforcement strategies. However, the rise in larceny-theft and motor vehicle theft, despite a declining population, suggests a need for targeted interventions in these areas. The city's changing demographics and economic conditions may play a role in these trends, and local authorities should consider these factors when developing crime prevention strategies for the future.