Motor vehicle theft in the city has remained low throughout the decade. From 1 incident in 2010 (0.18 per 1,000 residents), it fluctuated between 0 and 2 incidents annually, ending with 1 incident in 2020 (0.17 per 1,000 residents). The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts has consistently been minimal, ranging from 0% to 0.02%, indicating that this crime is not a significant issue for the local community relative to state levels.

Arson cases were virtually non-existent in the city for most of the decade, with 0 incidents reported from 2010 to 2019. However, in 2020, 1 arson case was reported, representing 0.17 incidents per 1,000 residents and a surprising 0.16% of state arson cases. This sudden appearance of arson is noteworthy and may warrant attention from local law enforcement.

Examining correlations between crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the population density increased from 1,117 per square mile in 2010 to 1,235 in 2020, property crimes generally decreased, suggesting that increased urbanization did not lead to higher crime rates. Additionally, there appears to be an inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As median income rose from $48,690 in 2013 to $54,324 in 2020, property crime incidents decreased overall, indicating that improved economic conditions may contribute to lower crime rates.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential slight increase in overall property crimes. Based on the fluctuating patterns observed, particularly the uptick in larceny-theft and the emergence of arson in recent years, the city may experience a modest rise in property crime incidents. However, given the overall downward trend in burglaries and the relatively stable rates of motor vehicle theft, any increase is likely to be moderate.

In summary, Tusculum has demonstrated a generally positive trend in property crime reduction over the past decade, particularly in burglaries and larceny-theft. The city's growth in population and improvements in median income appear to have coincided with these favorable crime trends. However, the recent uptick in certain categories and the emergence of arson warrant continued vigilance. As the community continues to evolve, maintaining focus on economic development and community policing strategies may be key to sustaining and improving upon these positive trends in property crime rates.