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Property Crime Trends in Tuscola, Illinois: A Decade of Decline Amid Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Tuscola, located in Illinois, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, with a notable decrease from 53 incidents in 2010 to 21 in 2022, representing a 60.4% reduction. During this same period, the population grew from 4,798 to 5,091, an increase of 6.1%.
Burglary rates in the city have shown significant variability over the years. In 2010, there were 7 burglaries, which increased to 30 in 2012, before declining to 3 in 2022. This represents a 57.1% decrease from 2010 to 2022. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 1.46 in 2010 to 0.59 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, peaking at 0.06% in 2012 and 2017, before dropping to 0.02% in 2022. This trend suggests improved local security measures or changing criminal patterns within the community.
Larceny-theft incidents have also experienced fluctuations. From 46 cases in 2010, the number rose to 58 in 2018, before sharply declining to 17 in 2022, marking a 63% decrease over the 12-year period. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 9.59 in 2010 to 3.34 in 2022. The city's proportion of state larceny-theft cases remained relatively stable, hovering around 0.02% to 0.04%, indicating that local trends generally mirrored state-wide patterns.
Motor vehicle theft showed an overall increasing trend, albeit with low absolute numbers. From no reported cases in 2010, it rose to 6 incidents in 2019, before decreasing to 1 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0 in 2010 to 0.20 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts grew from 0% in 2010 to 0.04% in 2019, dropping to 0% in 2022, suggesting that while this crime type increased locally, it remained a relatively minor issue compared to state figures.
Arson cases in the city have been sporadic. There were 2 incidents in 2010, dropping to 0 in several years, and then rising back to 2 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents remained relatively stable, at 0.42 in both 2010 and 2022. Notably, the city's share of state arson cases increased significantly from 0.19% in 2010 to 0.3% in 2022, indicating that arson became a more prominent issue relative to state trends.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between property crime rates and median income. As median income increased from $56,094 in 2013 to $62,978 in 2022, overall property crime rates decreased. This suggests that improved economic conditions may contribute to reduced property crime.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continued overall decrease in property crimes. Burglary rates are expected to stabilize at around 3-5 incidents per year. Larceny-theft is projected to continue its downward trend, potentially reaching 10-15 incidents annually. Motor vehicle theft is likely to remain low, with 1-3 cases per year. Arson cases are predicted to remain sporadic, with 0-2 incidents annually.
In summary, Tuscola has experienced a general decline in property crimes over the past decade, despite population growth. The most significant reductions were seen in burglary and larceny-theft, while motor vehicle theft and arson showed more variable patterns. These trends, coupled with rising median incomes, suggest an improving safety and economic environment in the city. However, the increased proportion of state arson cases warrants continued vigilance and targeted prevention efforts.
