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Property Crime Trends in Tullahoma: A Decade of Significant Reduction Amidst Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Tullahoma, a city in Tennessee, has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade, set against a backdrop of moderate population growth. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 41.1%, from 784 to 462 incidents. During this same period, the population grew by 5.8%, from 22,399 to 23,694 residents.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a significant downward trend. In 2010, there were 181 burglaries, which decreased to 48 by 2022, representing a 73.5% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 8.1 per 1,000 people in 2010 to 2.0 per 1,000 in 2022. Interestingly, despite this decrease, the city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, dropping from 0.42% in 2010 to a low of 0.32% in 2015, before rising again to 0.36% in 2022. This suggests that while the city has made progress in reducing burglaries, the improvement has been somewhat in line with statewide trends.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, also decreased over time but less dramatically than burglary. In 2010, there were 582 larceny-thefts, which reduced to 379 by 2022, a 34.9% decrease. The rate per 1,000 people dropped from 26.0 in 2010 to 16.0 in 2022. The city's share of state larceny-thefts remained relatively stable, starting at 0.5% in 2010 and ending at 0.5% in 2022, with some fluctuations in between. This indicates that the city's efforts to combat larceny-theft have been largely consistent with statewide trends.
Motor vehicle theft showed a different pattern, with an overall increase from 21 incidents in 2010 to 35 in 2022, a 66.7% rise. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.9 in 2010 to 1.5 in 2022. Despite this increase, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts remained relatively low, starting at 0.2% in 2010 and ending at 0.2% in 2022, with some fluctuations reaching as high as 0.4% in 2019. This suggests that while motor vehicle theft has become more prevalent in the city, it remains a smaller issue compared to other areas in the state.
Arson cases in the city have shown volatility but an overall increase. From 3 incidents in 2010, the number rose to 5 in 2022, a 66.7% increase. The rate per 1,000 people went from 0.13 in 2010 to 0.21 in 2022. Notably, the city's share of state arsons increased significantly, from 0.4% in 2010 to 0.93% in 2022, peaking at 1.33% in 2021. This indicates that arson has become a more significant issue in the city relative to the rest of the state.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between property crime rates and median income. As median income increased from $45,668 in 2013 to $56,660 in 2022, overall property crime rates decreased. Additionally, there seems to be a slight positive correlation between the percentage of owner-occupied housing and reduced property crime rates, with owner occupancy rising from 64% in 2013 to 66% in 2022 as crime rates fell.
Applying predictive models based on current trends, it's projected that by 2029 (five years from now), overall property crime rates may continue to decrease slightly, potentially reaching around 400 incidents per year. Burglary and larceny-theft are expected to maintain their downward trends, while motor vehicle theft and arson may stabilize or show slight increases.
In conclusion, Tullahoma has made significant strides in reducing overall property crime rates, particularly in burglary and larceny-theft. However, the city faces ongoing challenges with motor vehicle theft and arson, which have shown upward trends. The correlation between rising median incomes and decreasing crime rates suggests that continued economic growth could further contribute to crime reduction efforts in the coming years.
