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Property Crime Trends in Troy, North Carolina: A Decade of Significant Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Troy, North Carolina, a small town with a population of 5,411 in 2022, has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 56.9%, from 123 to 53 incidents. During this same period, the population decreased by 10.8%, from 6,064 to 5,411 residents.
Burglary trends in the city have shown significant variability. In 2010, there were 25 burglaries, which decreased to 10 in 2022, representing a 60% reduction. The burglary rate per 1,000 people decreased from 4.12 in 2010 to 1.85 in 2022. However, the city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, peaking at 0.14% in 2020 before dropping to 0.04% in 2022. This suggests that while burglaries have decreased overall, the city's contribution to state burglary rates has been inconsistent.
Larceny theft incidents also declined over the period. In 2010, there were 92 larceny thefts, which dropped to 41 in 2022, a 55.4% decrease. The larceny theft rate per 1,000 people fell from 15.17 in 2010 to 7.58 in 2022. The city's percentage of state larceny thefts remained relatively stable, ranging between 0.03% and 0.10%, indicating that the local trend generally aligned with state-level changes.
Motor vehicle theft showed more volatility. In 2010, there were 6 motor vehicle thefts, which decreased to 2 in 2022, a 66.7% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people dropped from 0.99 in 2010 to 0.37 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated between 0% and 0.09%, with the highest percentage occurring in 2020.
Arson data for the city is limited, with only one year (2013) reporting 2 incidents. This sporadic reporting makes it difficult to establish meaningful trends for arson in the city.
Examining correlations between property crime and socioeconomic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the median income increased from $34,469 in 2013 to $46,220 in 2022, there was a general downward trend in property crimes. This suggests a potential negative correlation between income levels and property crime rates. However, the relationship between property crime and homeownership is less clear, as the percentage of owner-occupied homes fluctuated between 58% and 64% during this period without a strong correlation to crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued gradual decrease in overall property crime rates. Based on the historical data and current trends, it's projected that by 2029, the city may see total property crimes drop below 40 incidents per year, with burglaries potentially falling to single digits annually.
In summary, Troy has experienced a significant overall reduction in property crime rates from 2010 to 2022, outpacing its population decline. This trend, coupled with rising median incomes, suggests improving safety and economic conditions in the city. However, the fluctuating percentages of state crime indicate that local crime trends don't always mirror state-wide patterns, highlighting the importance of continued local crime prevention efforts.
