Motor vehicle theft trends showed fluctuations but ultimately increased over the period. In 2010, there were 98 reported cases, which rose to 165 in 2022, representing a 68.4% increase. The motor vehicle theft rate per 1,000 residents increased from 3.44 in 2010 to 6.04 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts rose from 0.59% in 2010 to 0.73% in 2022, indicating that the increase in motor vehicle thefts in the city outpaced the state average.

Arson cases in the city showed an overall increase. In 2010, there were 11 reported arsons, which increased to 13 in 2022, an 18.2% rise. The arson rate per 1,000 residents increased slightly from 0.39 in 2010 to 0.48 in 2022. Notably, the city's proportion of state arson cases increased significantly from 0.4% in 2010 to 1.51% in 2022, suggesting that arson became a more prominent issue in the city relative to the state average.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The decline in overall property crime rates coincided with a slight decrease in population density, from 933 people per square mile in 2010 to 895 in 2022. Additionally, there was a notable increase in median income from $34,413 in 2013 (earliest available data) to $39,526 in 2022, which may have contributed to the overall reduction in property crimes.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential stabilization or slight increase in overall property crime rates. Burglary rates are expected to continue their downward trend, albeit at a slower pace. Larceny-theft incidents may plateau or show a minor increase. Motor vehicle thefts are projected to continue rising, potentially becoming a more significant concern for the city. Arson cases are forecasted to remain relatively stable but at a higher level compared to the early 2010s.

In summary, Trotwood has experienced a general decline in property crime rates over the past decade, with significant reductions in burglary and larceny-theft. However, the rise in motor vehicle thefts and the city's increasing share of state-level property crimes, particularly in arson cases, warrant attention. The correlation between rising median income and declining overall property crime rates suggests that economic improvements may have played a role in crime reduction. Moving forward, city officials and law enforcement may need to focus on strategies to address the persistent challenges of motor vehicle theft and arson while maintaining the positive trends in other areas of property crime.