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Property Crime Trends in Tonawanda Town: A Decade of Change and Homeownership Impact
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Tonawanda Town, located in New York State, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. From 2010 to 2022, the city experienced a significant decrease in total property crimes, dropping from 1,115 in 2010 to 898 in 2022, representing a 19.5% reduction. This decline occurred despite a slight population decrease from 58,545 in 2010 to 57,210 in 2022, a 2.3% reduction.
Burglary rates in the city showed a notable downward trend over the examined period. In 2010, there were 231 burglaries, which decreased to 101 in 2022, marking a 56.3% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 3.95 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 1.77 per 1,000 in 2022. Interestingly, the city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, dropping from 0.58% in 2010 to 0.44% in 2022, with a peak of 0.96% in 2016. This trend suggests that while burglaries decreased locally, the reduction was less pronounced compared to the state average.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the area, also saw a significant decline. The number of incidents dropped from 830 in 2010 to 658 in 2022, a 20.7% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 14.18 in 2010 to 11.5 in 2022. The city's proportion of state larceny-theft cases decreased from 0.47% in 2010 to 0.34% in 2022, indicating that the local reduction outpaced the state average.
Contrary to the declining trends in other property crimes, motor vehicle theft saw a substantial increase. In 2010, there were 54 reported cases, which rose to 139 in 2022, a striking 157.4% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents grew from 0.92 in 2010 to 2.43 in 2022. More alarmingly, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts jumped from 0.35% in 2010 to 0.67% in 2022, suggesting a local trend that diverged significantly from the state average.
Arson cases in the city remained relatively stable but showed a slight upward trend. From no reported cases in 2010, there were 4 cases in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0 to 0.07 over this period. The city's proportion of state arson cases rose from 0% in 2010 to 0.86% in 2022, indicating a growing concern relative to state levels.
Examining correlations reveals interesting patterns. The rise in motor vehicle thefts coincides with a slight decrease in the percentage of owner-occupied housing, which fell from 75% in 2019 to 73% in 2022. Additionally, there's a notable correlation between the increase in motor vehicle thefts and the gradual diversification of the city's racial composition. The white population decreased from 90% in 2013 to 85% in 2022, while the Black population increased from 2% to 6% over the same period.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential continuation of current patterns. Burglary and larceny-theft rates are likely to stabilize or continue their gradual decline. However, motor vehicle thefts may continue to rise, potentially reaching around 200 cases annually by 2029 if current trends persist. Arson cases are expected to remain low but could see slight increases.
In conclusion, Tonawanda Town has shown mixed trends in property crime over the past decade. While burglary and larceny-theft have decreased significantly, the rise in motor vehicle thefts presents a new challenge for local law enforcement. These trends, coupled with demographic shifts, suggest a changing landscape that will require targeted strategies to address emerging crime patterns in the coming years.
