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Property Crime Trends in Titusville, Pennsylvania: A Decade of Change in the Oil City
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Titusville, Pennsylvania, a historic community known for its role in the early petroleum industry, has experienced significant changes in property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2018, the total number of property crimes decreased by 28.19%, from 149 to 107 incidents. This decline occurred against a backdrop of population decrease, with the city's population falling by 7.62% from 5,697 in 2010 to 5,262 in 2022.
Burglary trends in the city show a notable decline over the years. In 2010, there were 25 burglaries, which decreased to 6 in 2018, representing a 76% reduction. When considering population trends, the burglary rate per 1,000 people fell from 4.39 in 2010 to 1.12 in 2018. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, peaking at 0.12% in 2011 and 2016, before dropping to 0.05% in 2018. This significant decrease in burglaries suggests improved security measures or changing criminal patterns within the community.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, also showed a downward trend. Incidents decreased from 121 in 2010 to 94 in 2018, a 22.31% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people dropped from 21.24 in 2010 to 17.63 in 2018. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft cases remained relatively stable, ranging from 0.11% to 0.20% during this period. This consistent share indicates that the city's larceny-theft trends generally aligned with state-wide patterns.
Motor vehicle theft in the city fluctuated over the years but showed an overall increase. From 3 incidents in 2010, it rose to 7 in 2018, a 133.33% increase. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.53 in 2010 to 1.31 in 2018. Notably, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts jumped from 0.03% in 2010 to 0.08% in 2018, indicating a disproportionate increase compared to state trends. This rise in motor vehicle thefts could suggest a need for targeted prevention strategies in the community.
Arson data for the city shows zero incidents reported from 2010 to 2018, indicating either a lack of arson occurrences or potential underreporting. This consistent absence of arson cases sets the city apart positively in terms of this specific crime category.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between property crime rates and home ownership percentages. As the percent of owner-occupied homes increased from 45% in 2013 to 57% in 2022, total property crimes decreased from 137 to 107 (between 2013 and 2018). This suggests that higher rates of home ownership may contribute to lower property crime rates, possibly due to increased community investment and vigilance.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continued gradual decrease in overall property crime rates. Based on the historical data and current trends, we project that by 2029, the total number of property crimes could potentially decrease by another 15-20%, reaching approximately 85-90 incidents annually. This projection assumes that current socioeconomic trends and crime prevention efforts remain consistent.
In summary, Titusville has experienced a significant overall reduction in property crimes from 2010 to 2018, with notable decreases in burglaries and larceny-thefts. The rise in motor vehicle thefts, however, presents an area for focused attention. The strong correlation between increased home ownership and decreased property crime rates suggests that policies promoting homeownership could potentially contribute to further crime reduction. As the city moves forward, maintaining and enhancing current crime prevention strategies while addressing specific areas of concern, such as motor vehicle theft, will be crucial in sustaining the positive trends observed in property crime rates.
