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Property Crime Trends in Tipton, Missouri: A Decade of Declining Incidents Amid Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Tipton, located in Missouri, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends. Over the period from 2010 to 2018, the city experienced a significant decrease in total property crimes, dropping from 27 incidents in 2010 to just 5 in 2018, representing an 81.5% reduction. During this same timeframe, the population fluctuated, growing from 3,505 in 2010 to a peak of 3,857 in 2019, before declining to 2,931 by 2022.
Burglary rates in the city showed a notable decline over the years. In 2010, there were 3 burglaries reported, which peaked at 6 in 2013 before dropping to 2 in 2018. When adjusted for population, this represents a decrease from 0.86 burglaries per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 0.52 per 1,000 in 2018. The city's contribution to state burglary statistics remained relatively stable, consistently accounting for about 0.01% to 0.02% of Missouri's total burglaries. This trend suggests an improvement in local security measures or community vigilance.
Larceny-theft, which constituted the majority of property crimes in the city, demonstrated a dramatic decrease. From 24 incidents in 2010, it fell to just 2 in 2018, a 91.7% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents dropped from 6.85 in 2010 to 0.52 in 2018. The city's share of state larceny-theft incidents also decreased from 0.02% in 2010 to less than 0.01% in 2018, indicating a significant improvement in this area relative to the rest of the state.
Motor vehicle theft trends were more variable. The city reported no such incidents in 2010, but saw a peak of 6 thefts in 2014, before declining to 1 in 2018. The rate per 1,000 residents went from 0 in 2010 to a high of 1.65 in 2014, settling at 0.26 in 2018. Interestingly, despite the low numbers, the city's contribution to state motor vehicle theft statistics was relatively high in some years, reaching 0.04% in 2014, suggesting sporadic issues with this type of crime.
Arson data for the city shows no reported incidents throughout the period from 2010 to 2018, consistently accounting for 0% of the state's arson cases. This absence of arson cases is a positive indicator for community safety.
Examining correlations between crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The decline in property crimes coincided with a period of fluctuating population density and median income. For instance, as the population density increased from 1,675 per square mile in 2010 to 1,832 in 2018, property crimes decreased. This suggests that increased urbanization did not lead to higher crime rates in this case. Additionally, the percentage of owner-occupied housing decreased from 80% in 2013 to 66% in 2018, which interestingly corresponded with the decline in property crimes, contrary to what might be expected.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued downward trajectory, albeit at a slower rate. Based on the historical data, we might expect total property crimes to stabilize at around 3-4 incidents per year, assuming no significant changes in local conditions or law enforcement strategies.
In summary, Tipton has demonstrated a remarkable improvement in property crime rates across all categories from 2010 to 2018. The most significant reductions were seen in larceny-theft and overall property crime incidents. These positive trends occurred despite fluctuations in population and changes in housing ownership, suggesting effective local crime prevention strategies. As the city moves forward, maintaining these low crime rates will be crucial for community safety and quality of life.
