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Property Crime Trends in Thorsby, Alabama: A Small Town's Fluctuating Security Landscape
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Thorsby, located in Alabama, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, starting at 13 in 2010, peaking at 28 in 2012, and settling at 14 in 2022, representing a 7.69% increase over the 12-year period. During this same timeframe, the population decreased from 3,516 in 2010 to 3,256 in 2022, a 7.39% decline.
Burglary rates in the city have shown significant volatility. In 2010, there were no reported burglaries, but by 2012, this number spiked to 8 incidents. However, by 2022, burglaries decreased to 5 cases. When considering population trends, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0 in 2010 to 1.54 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries also rose from 0% in 2010 to 0.04% in 2022, indicating a disproportionate increase relative to state trends. This suggests that while the population decreased, burglary became a more prevalent issue in the community.
Larceny-theft incidents have shown a downward trend over the years. In 2010, there were 12 reported cases, which decreased to 7 in 2022, a 41.67% reduction. When adjusted for population, the rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 3.41 in 2010 to 2.15 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft cases remained relatively stable, moving from 0.02% in 2010 to 0.02% in 2022. This indicates that the reduction in larceny-theft cases is largely in line with the overall population decrease and state trends.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has shown an increasing trend. From 1 incident in 2010, it rose to 2 in 2022, a 100% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0.28 in 2010 to 0.61 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts rose from 0.02% in 2010 to 0.03% in 2022. This suggests that motor vehicle theft has become a growing concern in the community, outpacing both population changes and state trends.
Arson data for the city is limited, with only one reported incident in 2011, representing 0.18% of state arson cases that year. No other arson incidents were reported in the available data, making it difficult to establish a clear trend or draw meaningful conclusions about arson in relation to population or state percentages.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and other socioeconomic factors reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a moderate inverse correlation between median income and property crime rates. As median income increased from $49,869 in 2019 to $65,834 in 2021, total property crimes decreased from 16 in 2018 to 14 in 2022. Additionally, there seems to be a slight positive correlation between the percentage of owner-occupied housing and lower property crime rates. As the percentage of owner-occupied housing increased from 0.79 in 2019 to 0.84 in 2022, property crimes remained relatively stable.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential stabilization or slight decrease in overall property crime rates. Burglary rates are expected to remain relatively constant, while larceny-theft may continue its downward trend. Motor vehicle theft rates, however, may continue to increase slightly if current trends persist.
In summary, Thorsby has experienced varied property crime trends over the past decade, with decreases in larceny-theft offset by increases in burglary and motor vehicle theft. The inverse relationship between rising median income and decreasing property crime rates, along with the positive correlation between owner-occupied housing and lower crime rates, suggests that continued economic growth and community stability may contribute to further reductions in property crime. As the city moves forward, focusing on strategies to address the rising motor vehicle theft rates while maintaining the positive trends in other areas will be crucial for enhancing overall community safety and well-being.
