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Property Crime Trends in Taylorville, Illinois: A Decade of Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Taylorville, Illinois, a city with a rich history dating back to the 19th century, has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade. From 2011 to 2020, the total number of property crimes decreased significantly from 243 to approximately 31 (estimated based on available data), representing a remarkable 87.2% reduction. During this same period, the city's population grew modestly from 16,852 to 16,501, an increase of about 2.1%.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a downward trend over time. In 2011, there were 56 burglaries reported, which decreased to 29 in 2020, representing a 48.2% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 3.32 per 1,000 people in 2011 to 1.76 per 1,000 in 2020. The city's share of state burglaries increased slightly from 0.1% in 2011 to 0.14% in 2020, despite the overall decrease in incidents. This suggests that while burglaries have declined locally, they may have decreased at a faster rate statewide.
Larceny-theft incidents also exhibited a declining trend. In 2011, there were 175 reported cases, which dropped to 123 in 2019 (the last year with available data), a 29.7% decrease. The larceny-theft rate per 1,000 people decreased from 10.38 in 2011 to 7.64 in 2019. The city's percentage of state larceny-theft crimes remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 0.07% and 0.12% over the years, indicating that the local trend generally aligned with statewide patterns.
Motor vehicle theft showed more variability but an overall downward trend. There were 12 incidents in 2011, which decreased to 2 in 2020, representing an 83.3% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people fell from 0.71 in 2011 to 0.12 in 2020. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased from 0.05% in 2011 to 0.01% in 2020, suggesting a more significant improvement compared to the state average.
Arson cases in the city were sporadic and relatively low in number. The highest recorded incidents were 9 cases in 2012, with several years reporting zero cases. In 2020, there was 1 reported arson case. Due to the low numbers, the arson rate per 1,000 people and the percentage of state arsons fluctuated considerably, making it difficult to establish a clear trend.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the population density decreased from 1,633 per square mile in 2011 to 1,599 in 2020, there was a corresponding decline in overall property crime rates. This suggests that lower population density may be associated with reduced property crime incidents in the city.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) indicates a potential continuation of the overall declining trend. Burglaries are projected to decrease further, possibly reaching around 20-25 incidents annually by 2029. Larceny-theft is expected to stabilize or slightly decrease, potentially averaging 100-110 cases per year. Motor vehicle theft may remain low, with an estimated 1-3 incidents annually. Arson cases are likely to remain sporadic and low in number.
In summary, Taylorville has experienced a significant reduction in property crime rates over the past decade, outpacing its modest population growth. The most notable improvements have been in burglary and motor vehicle theft rates. These trends, coupled with the city's changing demographics, suggest a positive shift in public safety. As the city moves forward, maintaining these improvements while addressing any emerging challenges will be crucial for sustaining the safety and well-being of its residents.
